NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Drake Maye QB

NE vs NYJ · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

30.5 Pass Att O -105U -122

Hit rate · Last 10 40%4/10 Odds imply 48.2% Over

Season avg: 30.2
Graph avg: 28.9
Graph median: 28.018–43
Over the close: 40%4/10

2026 per game

Pass Yds245.6▼-3.1

Att30.2▲+1.1

Cmp%65.6%▼-3.7

Pass TD1.6▼-0.2

INT1.4▲+0.8

Rush Yds32.2▲+2.3

Snaps65.6▲+3.0

Snap %96.2%▼-0.4

30.5

2025

18

Jan 04
29

Jan 11
27

Jan 18
21

Jan 25
43

Feb 08
2026

33

Sep 09
22

Sep 20
25

Sep 27
37

Oct 04
34

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 30.5

Home 40% 8/20 · avg 27.2
Away 47% 9/19 · avg 29.3
vs NYJ 25% 1/4 · avg 17.2

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 28.5 50% 5/10
O 29.5 40% 4/10
O 30.5 Today 40% 4/10
O 31.5 40% 4/10
O 32.5 40% 4/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs NYJ

What NYJ allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds228.7#16
Yds/Att7.2#13
Cmp%66.1%#8
Pass TD2.2#4
Pass Att31.6#18

QBs vs NYJ · 2026

Each main QB who faced NYJ this season: pass att in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+1.4

Avg diff %+20%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Deshaun Watson	33	28.8	+15%
Oct 04	Tyson Bagent	34	15.0	+127%
Sep 27	Jared Goff	32	39.8	-19%
Sep 20	Jordan Love	29	39.0	-26%
Sep 13	Cam Ward	32	30.8	+4%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NE offense

NE offense: Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	13%10.4 yds	3%10.5 yds	11%13.6 yds
Short	31%5.8 yds	15%7.4 yds	27%6.1 yds

Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NYJ defense

NYJ defense: Throws NYJ faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%10.0 yds#17	4%14.6 yds#18	8%13.0 yds#8
Short	32%5.6 yds#20	20%6.9 yds#16	28%6.2 yds#5

Throws NYJ faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%11.0 yds	3%9.4 yds	11%14.1 yds
Short	31%5.6 yds	16%7.4 yds	26%6.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of NE targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Mack Hollins WR	4	5.0	20	16.7%
2	Romeo Doubs WR	5	4.6	23	15.3%
3	DeMario Douglas WR	5	4.4	22	14.6%
4	Hunter Henry TE	5	3.8	19	13.4%
5	A.J. Brown WR	1	4.0	4	12.9%
6	Rhamondre Stevenson RB	5	3.8	19	12.5%
7	Efton Chism III WR	4	3.2	13	10.5%
8	Reggie Gilliam RB	1	2.0	2	9.5%
9	Eli Raridon TE	4	2.2	9	7.4%
10	Kyle Williams WR	5	2.0	10	7.0%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Att	vs 30.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs LV	34	Over	29.5	75 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ BUF	37	Over	31.5	76 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ JAX	25	Under	30.5	51 (81%)
2026-09-20	2	vs PIT	22	Under	29.5	55 (100%)
2026-09-09	1	@ SEA	33	Over	32.5	71 (100%)
2026-02-08	22 (P)	vs SEA	43	Over	30.5	71 (100%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	@ DEN	21	Under	29.5	64 (100%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs HOU	27	Under	29.5	65 (100%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs LAC	29	Under	31.5	64 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs MIA	18	Under	27.5	45 (76%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 30.5Underdog 30.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 13m ago.