NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jacoby Brissett QB

ARI vs LAR · Sun Oct 18 · 4:05 PM ET

237.5 Pass Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 10 60%6/10 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 222.0
Graph avg: 228.8
Graph median: 246.095–292
Over the close: 30%3/10

2026 per game

Pass Yds222.0▼-18.4

Att39.8▲+5.2

Cmp%66.3%▲+1.4

Pass TD1.8▲+0.2

INT1.0▲+0.4

Rush Yds12.4▲+0.4

Snaps70.2▲+12.2

Snap %100.0%▲+14.3

237.5

2025

271

Dec 07
249

Dec 14
203

Dec 21
212

Dec 28
243

Jan 04
2026

277

Sep 13
95

Sep 20
280

Sep 27
166

Oct 04
292

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 237.5

Home 38% 5/13 · avg 180.6
Away 62% 8/13 · avg 227.2
vs LAR 100% 2/2 · avg 257.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 217.5 60% 6/10
O 227.5 60% 6/10
O 237.5 Today 60% 6/10
O 247.5 50% 5/10
O 257.5 40% 4/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs LAR

What LAR allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds206.1#26
Yds/Att6.5#23
Cmp%58.4%#30
Pass TD1.7#9
Pass Att31.5#20

QBs vs LAR · 2026

Each main QB who faced LAR this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-63.3

Avg diff %-27%

Beat their average20% (1/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 12	Josh Allen	210	259.8	-19%
Oct 04	Jalen Hurts	93	210.0	-56%
Sep 27	Bo Nix	186	172.6	+8%
Sep 21	Jameis Winston	111	231.3	-52%
Sep 10	Brock Purdy	205	247.8	-17%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

ARI offense

ARI offense: Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%7.3 yds	2%13.8 yds	8%7.9 yds
Short	29%6.1 yds	20%5.6 yds	35%5.3 yds

Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAR defense

LAR defense: Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%10.0 yds#16	5%15.4 yds#15	7%5.0 yds#31
Short	31%6.0 yds#13	18%4.8 yds#31	31%6.3 yds#4

Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%7.3 yds	1%11.0 yds	8%7.9 yds
Short	29%6.1 yds	20%5.6 yds	34%5.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of ARI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Trey McBride TE	5	11.2	56	30.3%
2	Michael Wilson WR	5	10.2	51	26.4%
3	Kendrick Bourne WR	4	5.5	22	14.1%
4	Reggie Virgil WR	1	5.0	5	10.9%
5	Marvin Harrison Jr. WR	4	3.2	13	8.3%
6	Jeremiyah Love RB	5	2.8	14	7.5%
7	Tyler Allgeier RB	5	2.4	12	6.2%
8	Elijah Higgins TE	4	2.0	8	4.6%
9	Jalen Brooks WR	4	2.0	8	4.3%
10	Teagan Quitoriano TE	1	2.0	2	4.3%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 237.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs DET	292	Over	266.5	73 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ NYG	166	Under	230.5	66 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ SF	280	Over	225.5	87 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs SEA	95	Under	216.5	50 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	@ LAC	277	Over	220.5	75 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	@ LA	243	Over	245.5	55 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CIN	212	Under	258.5	57 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	vs ATL	203	Under	220.5	57 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	@ HOU	249	Over	257.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	vs LA	271	Over	293.5	62 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 237.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 15m ago.