NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jacoby Brissett QB

ARI vs LAR · Sun Oct 18 · 4:05 PM ET

1.5 Pass TDs O +137U -176

Hit rate · Last 10 70%7/10 Odds imply 39.8% Over

Season avg: 1.8
Graph avg: 1.9
Graph median: 2.01–3
Over the close: 50%5/10

2026 per game

Pass Yds222.0▼-18.4

Att39.8▲+5.2

Cmp%66.3%▲+1.4

Pass TD1.8▲+0.2

INT1.0▲+0.4

Rush Yds12.4▲+0.4

Snaps70.2▲+12.2

Snap %100.0%▲+14.3

1.5

2025

2

Dec 07
3

Dec 14
1

Dec 21
2

Dec 28
2

Jan 04
2026

1

Sep 13
1

Sep 20
2

Sep 27
2

Oct 04
3

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 1.5

Home 31% 4/13 · avg 1.0
Away 69% 9/13 · avg 1.6
vs LAR 100% 2/2 · avg 2.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 100% 10/10
O 1.5 Today 70% 7/10
O 2.5 20% 2/10
O 3.5 0% 0/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs LAR

What LAR allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds206.1#26
Yds/Att6.5#23
Cmp%58.4%#30
Pass TD1.7#9
Pass Att31.5#20

QBs vs LAR · 2026

Each main QB who faced LAR this season: pass tds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.1

Avg diff %+14%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 12	Josh Allen	1	1.5	-33%
Oct 04	Jalen Hurts	2	1.5	+33%
Sep 27	Bo Nix	2	0.8	+150%
Sep 21	Jameis Winston	0	2.0	-100%
Sep 10	Brock Purdy	3	2.5	+20%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

ARI offense

ARI offense: Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%7.3 yds	2%13.8 yds	8%7.9 yds
Short	29%6.1 yds	20%5.6 yds	35%5.3 yds

Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAR defense

LAR defense: Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%10.0 yds#16	5%15.4 yds#15	7%5.0 yds#31
Short	31%6.0 yds#13	18%4.8 yds#31	31%6.3 yds#4

Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%7.3 yds	1%11.0 yds	8%7.9 yds
Short	29%6.1 yds	20%5.6 yds	34%5.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of ARI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Trey McBride TE	5	11.2	56	30.3%
2	Michael Wilson WR	5	10.2	51	26.4%
3	Kendrick Bourne WR	4	5.5	22	14.1%
4	Reggie Virgil WR	1	5.0	5	10.9%
5	Marvin Harrison Jr. WR	4	3.2	13	8.3%
6	Jeremiyah Love RB	5	2.8	14	7.5%
7	Tyler Allgeier RB	5	2.4	12	6.2%
8	Elijah Higgins TE	4	2.0	8	4.6%
9	Jalen Brooks WR	4	2.0	8	4.3%
10	Teagan Quitoriano TE	1	2.0	2	4.3%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass TDs	vs 1.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs DET	3	Over	1.5	73 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ NYG	2	Over	1.5	66 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ SF	2	Over	1.5	87 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs SEA	1	Under	1.5	50 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	@ LAC	1	Under	1.5	75 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	@ LA	2	Over	2.5	55 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CIN	2	Over	1.5	57 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	vs ATL	1	Under	1.5	57 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	@ HOU	3	Over	3.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	vs LA	2	Over	1.5	62 (100%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 0.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 7m ago.