NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Cam Ward QB

TEN vs IND · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

0.5 Pass TDs O -266U +204

Hit rate · Last 10 70%7/10 Odds imply 68.8% Over

Season avg: 0.6
Graph avg: 1.1
Graph median: 1.00–2
Over the close: 50%2/4

2026 per game

Pass Yds179.2▼-7.2

Att31.0▼-0.8

Cmp%63.2%▲+3.4

Pass TD0.6▼-0.3

INT0.6▲+0.2

Rush Yds11.8▲+2.4

Snaps58.0▼-1.2

Snap %100.0%▲+5.4

0.5

2025

2

Dec 07
2

Dec 14
2

Dec 21
2

Dec 28
0

Jan 04
2026

1

Sep 13
0

Sep 20
1

Sep 27
1

Oct 04
0

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 0.5

Home 67% 8/12 · avg 0.8
Away 60% 6/10 · avg 0.8
vs IND 100% 2/2 · avg 1.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 Today 70% 7/10
O 1.5 40% 4/10
O 2.5 0% 0/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs IND

What IND allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds262.1#3
Yds/Att7.8#7
Cmp%62.3%#22
Pass TD1.7#8
Pass Att33.7#9

QBs vs IND · 2026

Each main QB who faced IND this season: pass tds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.1

Avg diff %-8%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Aaron Rodgers	3	1.8	+71%
Oct 04	Marcus Mariota	0	2.0	-100%
Sep 27	C.J. Stroud	1	1.2	-20%
Sep 20	Patrick Mahomes	3	2.0	+50%
Sep 13	Lamar Jackson	1	1.7	-40%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TEN offense

TEN offense: Share of TEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%5.7 yds	2%16.8 yds	7%14.4 yds
Short	34%5.3 yds	10%4.1 yds	40%4.4 yds

Share of TEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

IND defense

IND defense: Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%13.6 yds#8	3%12.3 yds#24	10%12.0 yds#12
Short	28%6.1 yds#11	21%8.8 yds#4	32%5.9 yds#11

Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%6.6 yds	2%16.8 yds	7%14.1 yds
Short	31%5.9 yds	11%4.2 yds	41%4.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of TEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Carnell Tate WR	5	7.4	37	26.7%
2	Wan'Dale Robinson WR	5	6.0	30	19.3%
3	Tyjae Spears RB	5	3.2	16	11.1%
4	Gunnar Helm TE	5	2.6	13	9.5%
5	Elic Ayomanor WR	5	2.4	12	9.2%
6	Tony Pollard RB	5	2.4	12	8.3%
7	Calvin Ridley WR	4	2.0	8	7.6%
8	Daniel Bellinger TE	5	1.4	7	4.9%
9	Chimere Dike WR	5	1.4	7	4.3%
10	Kylen Granson TE	1	1.0	1	2.9%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass TDs	vs 0.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs HOU	0	Under	0.5	63 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ BAL	1	Over	0.5	64 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ NYG	1	Over	0.5	60 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs PHI	0	Under	0.5	53 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs NYJ	1	Over	—	50 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	@ JAX	0	Under	—	5 (9%)
2025-12-28	17	vs NO	2	Over	—	74 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	vs KC	2	Over	—	73 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	@ SF	2	Over	—	53 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ CLE	2	Over	—	66 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 1

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 13m ago.