NFL Prop Research

FREE

Game logs through Oct 15, 2026 · 181 players

Michael Penix Jr. QB

ATL vs CHI ·

1.5 Pass TDs O -120U -106
Hit rate · Last 10 20%2/10 Odds imply 51.5% Over
Season avg
1.0
Graph avg
1.1
Graph median
1.00–3
Over the close
20%2/10
2026 per game
Pass Yds239.7â–²+19.4
Att25.7â–¼-5.0
Cmp%67.5%â–²+7.4
Pass TD1.0+0.0
INT0.3+0.0
Rush Yds1.3â–¼-6.4
Snaps63.0â–²+1.6
Snap %98.3%â–²+5.1
Under 1.5 in 5 straight
Michael Penix Jr. passing tds by game, oldest to newest, against today’s line of 1.5.
1.5
  1. 2025
    0
  2. 2
  3. 1
  4. 1
  5. 3
  6. 1
  7. 0
  8. 2026
    1
  9. 1
  10. 1
  11. ?

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 1.5

  • Home 25% 2/8 · avg 0.9
  • Away 11% 1/9 · avg 0.9
  • vs CHI No games

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

  • O 0.5 80% 8/10
  • O 1.5 Today 20% 2/10
  • O 2.5 10% 1/10
  • O 3.5 0% 0/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs CHI

What CHI allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass YdsYds/AttCmp%Pass TDPass Att
  • Pass Yds255.6#6
  • Yds/Att8.1#4
  • Cmp%61.5%#25
  • Pass TD1.5#16
  • Pass Att31.7#17

QBs vs CHI · 2026

Each main QB who faced CHI this season: pass tds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.3
Avg diff %-18%
Beat their average25% (1/4)
DatePlayerResultTheir avgDiff
Oct 11 Jordan Love22.0+0%
Oct 04 Geno Smith11.2-20%
Sep 28 Jalen Hurts02.0-100%
Sep 13 Bryce Young32.0+50%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

ATL offense

ATL offense: Share of ATL pass attempts, last 10 games
DepthLeftMiddleRight
Deep7%10.1 yds3%11.8 yds9%11.8 yds
Short33%6.4 yds19%6.6 yds29%5.6 yds

Share of ATL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

CHI defense

CHI defense: Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
DepthLeftMiddleRight
Deep6%12.1 yds#124%21.1 yds#59%15.2 yds#5
Short31%4.9 yds#3019%8.5 yds#630%6.2 yds#6

Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
DepthLeftMiddleRight
Deep10%16.1 yds3%12.4 yds10%9.4 yds
Short37%5.7 yds10%7.2 yds30%6.7 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Target share · ATL 2026

Each pass-catcher’s share of ATL targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#PlayerGPTgt/gTotalShare
1Drake London WR57.23628.6%
2Bijan Robinson RB55.02521.0%
3Jahan Dotson WR53.41713.7%
4Kyle Pitts TE53.01511.3%
5Austin Hooper TE32.378.9%
6Zachariah Branch WR51.686.2%
7Olamide Zaccheaus WR51.475.7%
8Charlie Woerner TE31.344.7%
9Brian Robinson RB50.842.9%
10Chris Blair WR40.832.4%

Game log · 10 games

DateWkOppPass TDsvs 1.5CloseSnaps
2026-10-115vs BAL1Under1.561 (95%)
2026-10-054@ NO1Under1.557 (100%)
2026-09-243@ GB1Under0.571 (100%)
2025-11-1611vs CAR0Under1.541 (62%)
2025-11-0910@ IND1Under1.563 (100%)
2025-11-029@ NE3Over2.556 (100%)
2025-10-197@ SF1Under1.565 (100%)
2025-10-136vs BUF1Under1.570 (100%)
2025-09-284vs WAS2Over2.565 (100%)
2025-09-213@ CAR0Under0.551 (77%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 1.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 13m ago.