NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Drake Maye QB

NE vs NYJ · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

0.5 INTs O +131U -167

Hit rate · Last 10 · Home 60%6/10 Odds imply 40.9% Over

Season avg: 1.4
Graph avg: 0.7
Graph median: 1.00–2
Over the close: 50%5/10

2026 per game

Pass Yds245.6▼-3.1

Att30.2▲+1.1

Cmp%65.6%▼-3.7

Pass TD1.6▼-0.2

INT1.4▲+0.8

Rush Yds32.2▲+2.3

Snaps65.6▲+3.0

Snap %96.2%▼-0.4

0.5

2025

1

Nov 02
0

Nov 13
0

Dec 01
1

Dec 14
0

Jan 04
1

Jan 11
1

Jan 18
2

Feb 08
2026

1

Sep 20
0

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 0.5

Home 60% 12/20 · avg 0.7
Away 58% 11/19 · avg 0.8
vs NYJ 0% 0/4 · avg 0.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 Today 60% 6/10
O 1.5 10% 1/10
O 2.5 0% 0/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs NYJ

What NYJ allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds228.7#16
Yds/Att7.2#13
Cmp%66.1%#8
Pass TD2.2#4
Pass Att31.6#18

QBs vs NYJ · 2026

Each main QB who faced NYJ this season: ints in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.5

Avg diff %-75%

Beat their average0% (0/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Deshaun Watson	0	0.5	-100%
Oct 04	Tyson Bagent	1	1.0	+0%
Sep 20	Jordan Love	0	0.8	-100%
Sep 13	Cam Ward	0	0.8	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NE offense

NE offense: Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	13%10.4 yds	3%10.5 yds	11%13.6 yds
Short	31%5.8 yds	15%7.4 yds	27%6.1 yds

Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NYJ defense

NYJ defense: Throws NYJ faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%10.0 yds#17	4%14.6 yds#18	8%13.0 yds#8
Short	32%5.6 yds#20	20%6.9 yds#16	28%6.2 yds#5

Throws NYJ faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%11.0 yds	3%9.4 yds	11%14.1 yds
Short	31%5.6 yds	16%7.4 yds	26%6.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of NE targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Mack Hollins WR	4	5.0	20	16.7%
2	Romeo Doubs WR	5	4.6	23	15.3%
3	DeMario Douglas WR	5	4.4	22	14.6%
4	Hunter Henry TE	5	3.8	19	13.4%
5	A.J. Brown WR	1	4.0	4	12.9%
6	Rhamondre Stevenson RB	5	3.8	19	12.5%
7	Efton Chism III WR	4	3.2	13	10.5%
8	Reggie Gilliam RB	1	2.0	2	9.5%
9	Eli Raridon TE	4	2.2	9	7.4%
10	Kyle Williams WR	5	2.0	10	7.0%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	INTs	vs 0.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs LV	0	Under	0.5	75 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs PIT	1	Over	0.5	55 (100%)
2026-02-08	22 (P)	vs SEA	2	Over	0.5	71 (100%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs HOU	1	Over	0.5	65 (100%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs LAC	1	Over	1.5	64 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs MIA	0	Under	0.5	45 (76%)
2025-12-14	15	vs BUF	1	Over	0.5	52 (100%)
2025-12-01	13	vs NYG	0	Under	0.5	65 (100%)
2025-11-13	11	vs NYJ	0	Under	0.5	67 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	vs ATL	1	Over	0.5	68 (100%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 1.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 2m ago.