NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Matthew Stafford QB

LAR vs ARI · Sun Oct 18 · 4:05 PM ET

0.5 INTs O +104U -133

Hit rate · Last 10 · Away 50%5/10 Odds imply 46.2% Over

Season avg: 1.2
Graph avg: 1.0
Graph median: 0.50–3
Over the close: 30%3/10

2026 per game

Pass Yds314.4▲+32.2

Att43.2▲+7.4

Cmp%64.4%▲+0.9

Pass TD1.8▼-0.8

INT1.2▲+0.8

Rush Yds4.2▲+3.4

Snaps73.0▲+6.4

Snap %96.8%▼-2.0

0.5

2025

0

Nov 09
2

Nov 30
0

Dec 07
0

Dec 18
3

Dec 29
1

Jan 10
0

Jan 18
0

Jan 25
2026

2

Sep 27
2

Oct 04
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 0.5

Home 35% 7/20 · avg 0.3
Away 48% 11/23 · avg 0.7
vs ARI 0% 0/4 · avg 0.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 Today 50% 5/10
O 1.5 40% 4/10
O 2.5 10% 1/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds258.8#4
Yds/Att8.3#3
Cmp%66.1%#10
Pass TD2.8#1
Pass Att31.0#25

QBs vs ARI · 2026

Each main QB who faced ARI this season: ints in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.2

Avg diff %+122%

Beat their average33% (1/3)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Jameis Winston	2	0.3	+500%
Sep 27	Brock Purdy	0	0.5	-100%
Sep 13	Justin Herbert	1	1.5	-33%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LAR offense

LAR offense: Share of LAR pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.3 yds	3%9.9 yds	15%11.6 yds
Short	23%6.7 yds	18%7.9 yds	33%5.6 yds

Share of LAR pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%14.5 yds#5	3%14.6 yds#17	10%12.2 yds#11
Short	30%6.1 yds#12	18%8.6 yds#5	31%7.3 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.3 yds	3%9.9 yds	15%11.6 yds
Short	23%6.7 yds	17%8.0 yds	33%5.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of LA targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Puka Nacua WR	3	15.0	45	33.9%
2	Davante Adams WR	5	9.0	45	22.6%
3	Kyren Williams RB	5	6.6	33	14.6%
4	Tyler Higbee TE	4	6.2	25	13.2%
5	Terrance Ferguson TE	3	4.0	12	12.6%
6	Konata Mumpfield WR	4	3.5	14	8.2%
7	Colby Parkinson TE	4	1.8	7	5.0%
8	Blake Corum RB	5	2.2	11	4.6%
9	Davis Allen TE	5	1.8	9	4.2%
10	Ronnie Rivers RB	1	1.0	1	3.7%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	INTs	vs 0.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ PHI	2	Over	0.5	84 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ DEN	2	Over	0.5	86 (100%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	@ SEA	0	Under	0.5	61 (100%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	@ CHI	0	Under	0.5	78 (100%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	@ CAR	1	Over	1.5	76 (100%)
2025-12-29	17	@ ATL	3	Over	3.5	65 (100%)
2025-12-18	16	@ SEA	0	Under	0.5	92 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ ARI	0	Under	0.5	58 (83%)
2025-11-30	13	@ CAR	2	Over	0.5	52 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	@ SF	0	Under	0.5	69 (100%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 1.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 3m ago.