NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

DeMario Douglas WR

NE vs CHI · Thu Oct 22 · 8:15 PM ET

30.5 Rec Yds O -111U -113

Hit rate · Last 10 50%5/10 Odds imply 49.8% Over

Season avg: 38.8
Graph avg: 31.7
Graph median: 28.00–86
Over the close: 50%5/10

2026 per game

Targets5.0▲+2.1

Rec3.3▲+1.4

Rec Yds38.8▲+12.3

Rec TD0.5▲+0.3

Snaps36.5▲+18.6

Snap %53.7%▲+26.5

30.5

2025

3

Jan 11
36

Jan 18
0

Jan 25
45

Feb 08
2026

20

Sep 09
9

Sep 20
38

Sep 27
15

Oct 04
65

Oct 11
86

Oct 18
?

Oct 23

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 30.5

Home 62% 13/21 · avg 38.7
Away 43% 9/21 · avg 27.2
vs CHI 100% 1/1 · avg 50.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 20.5 50% 5/10
O 25.5 50% 5/10
O 30.5 Today 50% 5/10
O 35.5 50% 5/10
O 40.5 30% 3/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs CHI

What CHI allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds183.7#2
Receptions12.0#10
Targets19.1#12
Yds/Target9.6#1
Rec TD1.1#5

WRs vs CHI · 2026

Each main WR who faced CHI this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+9.9

Avg diff %+48%

Beat their average42% (5/12)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Drake London	62	97.6	-36%
Oct 18	Jahan Dotson	87	29.8	+192%
Oct 11	Christian Watson	143	79.0	+81%
Oct 11	Matthew Golden	123	75.6	+63%
Oct 04	Garrett Wilson	27	78.2	-65%
Oct 04	Isaiah Williams	73	15.6	+368%
Sep 28	DeVonta Smith	65	81.7	-20%
Sep 28	Dontayvion Wicks	32	50.4	-37%
Sep 20	Justin Jefferson	55	67.7	-19%
Sep 20	Jordan Addison	21	47.3	-56%
Sep 13	Tetairoa McMillan	75	99.0	-24%
Sep 13	Jalen Coker	138	60.3	+129%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NE offense

NE offense: Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%10.7 yds	3%10.5 yds	10%14.9 yds
Short	30%5.4 yds	16%7.2 yds	29%5.9 yds

Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

CHI defense

CHI defense: Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%13.1 yds#8	4%21.1 yds#1	9%12.8 yds#10
Short	29%4.5 yds#32	19%8.5 yds#5	31%6.5 yds#4

Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	19%4.8 yds	2%0.0 yds	10%18.5 yds
Short	24%5.2 yds	17%9.3 yds	29%7.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of NE targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	A.J. Brown WR	2	7.0	14	23.1%
2	DeMario Douglas WR	6	5.0	30	16.7%
3	Mack Hollins WR	4	5.0	20	16.7%
4	Hunter Henry TE	6	4.0	24	13.9%
5	Romeo Doubs WR	6	4.0	24	13.3%
6	Rhamondre Stevenson RB	6	3.2	19	10.4%
7	Reggie Gilliam RB	1	2.0	2	9.5%
8	Efton Chism III WR	5	2.8	14	9.0%
9	Eli Raridon TE	5	2.4	12	7.9%
10	Lan Larison RB	1	2.0	2	6.5%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 30.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-18	6	vs NYJ	86	Over	21.5	40 (59%)
2026-10-11	5	vs LV	65	Over	25.5	37 (49%)
2026-10-04	4	@ BUF	15	Under	29.5	35 (46%)
2026-09-27	3	@ JAX	38	Over	28.5	37 (59%)
2026-09-20	2	vs PIT	9	Under	34.5	26 (47%)
2026-09-09	1	@ SEA	20	Under	21.5	44 (62%)
2026-02-08	22 (P)	vs SEA	45	Over	10.5	29 (41%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	@ DEN	0	Under	12.5	12 (19%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs HOU	36	Over	18.5	17 (26%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs LAC	3	Under	3.5	21 (33%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 30.5Underdog 39.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 11m ago.