NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Keenan Allen WR

IND vs PIT · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

29.5 Rec Yds O -114U -110

Hit rate · Last 10 60%6/10 Odds imply 50.4% Over

Season avg: 33.3
Graph avg: 31.0
Graph median: 31.05–63
Over the close: 33%3/9

2026 per game

Targets6.7▼-0.6

Rec4.3▼-0.3

Rec Yds33.3▼-11.2

Rec TD0.3▲+0.1

Snaps40.3▲+3.3

Snap %63.7%▲+7.9

2025

30

Nov 30
22

Dec 08
36

Dec 14
44

Dec 21
17

Dec 27
36

Jan 04
25

Jan 11
2026

32

Sep 13
5

Sep 20
63

Sep 27
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 29.5

Home 70% 14/20 · avg 49.8
Away 75% 12/16 · avg 40.6
vs PIT 0% 0/1 · avg 19.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 19.5 80% 8/10
O 24.5 70% 7/10
O 29.5 Today 60% 6/10
O 34.5 40% 4/10
O 39.5 20% 2/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs PIT

What PIT allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds154.0#11
Receptions10.4#20
Targets15.9#29
Yds/Target9.7#2
Rec TD0.8#18

WRs vs PIT · 2026

Each main WR who faced PIT this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+3.9

Avg diff %+40%

Beat their average50% (4/8)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 01	Denzel Boston	89	65.0	+37%
Oct 01	KC Concepcion	64	26.7	+140%
Sep 27	Tee Higgins	90	103.7	-13%
Sep 27	Ja'Marr Chase	98	38.0	+158%
Sep 20	Mack Hollins	18	63.7	-72%
Sep 20	Romeo Doubs	96	35.7	+169%
Sep 13	Drake London	29	113.7	-74%
Sep 13	Jahan Dotson	19	25.3	-25%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

IND offense

IND offense: Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.3 yds	5%17.4 yds	5%6.2 yds
Short	30%5.3 yds	18%6.6 yds	35%4.6 yds

Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

PIT defense

PIT defense: Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%21.5 yds#1	4%12.8 yds#22	6%18.4 yds#2
Short	33%5.8 yds#17	22%6.4 yds#20	28%5.5 yds#15

Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	3%0.0 yds	0%	6%6.5 yds
Short	38%5.2 yds	14%7.2 yds	39%3.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of IND targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Josh Downs WR	4	7.0	28	22.3%
2	Tyler Warren TE	4	6.8	27	21.6%
3	Keenan Allen WR	3	6.7	20	21.0%
4	Jonathan Taylor RB	4	3.8	15	12.4%
5	Ashton Dulin WR	2	3.5	7	12.1%
6	Alec Pierce WR	2	3.5	7	12.0%
7	Laquon Treadwell WR	4	2.8	11	9.2%
8	Deion Burks WR	2	1.0	2	3.4%
9	Mo Alie-Cox TE	1	1.0	1	2.9%
10	Seth McGowan RB	4	0.8	3	2.6%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 29.5	Close	Snaps
2026-09-27	3	vs HOU	63	Over	32.5	52 (73%)
2026-09-20	2	@ KC	5	Under	29.5	33 (51%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BAL	32	Over	28.5	36 (67%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ NE	25	Under	33.5	36 (60%)
2026-01-04	18	@ DEN	36	Over	—	38 (54%)
2025-12-27	17	vs HOU	17	Under	20.5	36 (57%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DAL	44	Over	44.5	30 (47%)
2025-12-14	15	@ KC	36	Over	36.5	28 (42%)
2025-12-08	14	vs PHI	22	Under	20.5	42 (57%)
2025-11-30	13	vs LV	30	Over	30.5	40 (60%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 29.5Underdog 39.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 9m ago.