NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Jahmyr Gibbs RB

DET vs GB · Sun Oct 25 · 4:25 PM ET

89.5 Rush Yds

Hit rate · Last 10 30%3/10 Odds imply —

Season avg: 100.8
Graph avg: 70.8
Graph median: 49.02–156
Over the close: 50%5/10

2026 per game

Carries21.0▲+6.7

Rush Yds100.8▲+28.9

Rush TD1.4▲+0.6

Targets6.8▲+1.3

Rec5.4▲+0.9

Rec Yds48.6▲+12.4

Snaps52.8▲+9.4

Snap %76.6%▲+9.6

89.5

2025

43

Dec 04
38

Dec 14
2

Dec 21
41

Dec 25
80

Jan 04
2026

156

Sep 13
52

Sep 17
99

Sep 27
46

Oct 04
151

Oct 11
?

Oct 25

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 89.5

Home 45% 9/20 · avg 86.8
Away 30% 6/20 · avg 75.4
vs GB 0% 0/4 · avg 48.8

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 69.5 40% 4/10
O 79.5 40% 4/10
O 89.5 Today 30% 3/10
O 99.5 20% 2/10
O 109.5 20% 2/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs GB

What GB allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds110.8#2
Yds/Carry4.4#11
Rush TD1.5#1
Targets5.4#17
Rec Yds35.9#9

RBs vs GB · 2026

Each main RB who faced GB this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-7.6

Avg diff %-14%

Beat their average17% (1/6)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Javonte Williams	41	55.2	-26%
Oct 11	D'Andre Swift	43	71.0	-39%
Oct 04	Bucky Irving	61	78.2	-22%
Sep 24	Bijan Robinson	194	89.4	+117%
Sep 20	Breece Hall	29	67.0	-57%
Sep 13	Aaron Jones	40	92.5	-57%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DET offense

DET offense: Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%15.4 yds	6%13.8 yds	6%14.0 yds
Short	30%5.1 yds	25%8.5 yds	29%6.0 yds

Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

GB defense

GB defense: Throws GB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%13.8 yds#6	4%10.1 yds#32	7%5.3 yds#29
Short	25%5.1 yds#26	21%6.0 yds#26	35%5.8 yds#11

Throws GB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	33%6.2 yds	39%7.9 yds	28%5.1 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DET targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Amon-Ra St. Brown WR	5	11.4	57	31.1%
2	Sam LaPorta TE	5	7.4	37	18.9%
3	Jahmyr Gibbs RB	5	6.8	34	18.8%
4	Jameson Williams WR	5	5.8	29	15.2%
5	Isaac TeSlaa WR	5	3.8	19	9.6%
6	Brock Wright TE	5	1.2	6	3.3%
7	Jackson Meeks WR	1	1.0	1	3.2%
8	Sione Vaki RB	5	1.0	5	2.5%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 89.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ ARI	151	Over	90.5	46 (70%)
2026-10-04	4	@ CAR	46	Under	96.5	62 (87%)
2026-09-27	3	vs NYJ	99	Over	89.5	45 (69%)
2026-09-17	2	@ BUF	52	Under	89.5	54 (83%)
2026-09-13	1	vs NO	156	Over	85.5	57 (74%)
2026-01-04	18	@ CHI	80	Under	60.5	52 (71%)
2025-12-25	17	@ MIN	41	Under	72.5	44 (69%)
2025-12-21	16	vs PIT	2	Under	75.5	64 (86%)
2025-12-14	15	@ LA	38	Under	72.5	52 (81%)
2025-12-04	14	vs DAL	43	Under	30.5	43 (69%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 89.5PrizePicks 92.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Underdog, updated 10m ago.