NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

TreVeyon Henderson RB

NE vs CHI · Thu Oct 22 · 8:15 PM ET

28.5 Rush Yds O -116U -108

Hit rate · Last 10 · Home 60%6/10 Odds imply 50.8% Over

Season avg: 38.8
Graph avg: 53.0
Graph median: 42.019–148
Over the close: 40%4/10

2026 per game

Carries9.8▼-0.2

Rush Yds38.8▼-8.2

Rush TD0.2▼-0.2

Targets1.0▼-1.3

Rec0.6▼-1.3

Rec Yds6.2▼-5.9

Snaps22.4▼-5.4

Snap %34.8%▼-8.2

28.5

2025

62

Nov 13
67

Dec 01
148

Dec 14
53

Jan 04
27

Jan 11
25

Jan 18
19

Feb 08
2026

76

Sep 20
22

Oct 11
31

Oct 18
?

Oct 23

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 28.5

Home 60% 9/15 · avg 49.8
Away 36% 4/11 · avg 39.5
vs CHI No games

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 18.5 100% 10/10
O 23.5 80% 8/10
O 28.5 Today 60% 6/10
O 33.5 50% 5/10
O 38.5 50% 5/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs CHI

What CHI allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds93.5#18
Yds/Carry4.5#6
Rush TD0.6#16
Targets4.8#26
Rec Yds29.1#20

RBs vs CHI · 2026

Each main RB who faced CHI this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.3

Avg diff %+29%

Beat their average67% (4/6)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Bijan Robinson	61	116.0	-47%
Oct 11	MarShawn Lloyd	31	18.2	+70%
Oct 04	Braelon Allen	59	51.0	+16%
Sep 28	Saquon Barkley	82	33.3	+146%
Sep 20	Aaron Jones	105	76.2	+38%
Sep 13	Chuba Hubbard	49	94.2	-48%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NE offense

NE offense: Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%10.7 yds	3%10.5 yds	10%14.9 yds
Short	30%5.4 yds	16%7.2 yds	29%5.9 yds

Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

CHI defense

CHI defense: Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%13.1 yds#8	4%21.1 yds#1	9%12.8 yds#10
Short	29%4.5 yds#32	19%8.5 yds#5	31%6.5 yds#4

Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	5%0.0 yds
Short	37%1.6 yds	21%7.5 yds	37%7.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of NE targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	A.J. Brown WR	2	7.0	14	23.1%
2	DeMario Douglas WR	6	5.0	30	16.7%
3	Mack Hollins WR	4	5.0	20	16.7%
4	Hunter Henry TE	6	4.0	24	13.9%
5	Romeo Doubs WR	6	4.0	24	13.3%
6	Rhamondre Stevenson RB	6	3.2	19	10.4%
7	Reggie Gilliam RB	1	2.0	2	9.5%
8	Efton Chism III WR	5	2.8	14	9.0%
9	Eli Raridon TE	5	2.4	12	7.9%
10	Lan Larison RB	1	2.0	2	6.5%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 28.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-18	6	vs NYJ	31	Over	31.5	16 (24%)
2026-10-11	5	vs LV	22	Under	46.5	12 (16%)
2026-09-20	2	vs PIT	76	Over	33.5	33 (60%)
2026-02-08	22 (P)	vs SEA	19	Under	19.5	28 (39%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs HOU	25	Under	34.5	25 (38%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs LAC	27	Under	11.5	26 (41%)
2026-01-04	18	vs MIA	53	Over	73.5	24 (41%)
2025-12-14	15	vs BUF	148	Over	43.5	25 (48%)
2025-12-01	13	vs NYG	67	Over	68.5	32 (49%)
2025-11-13	11	vs NYJ	62	Over	57.5	59 (88%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 28.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 14m ago.