NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Joe Burrow QB

CIN vs BAL · Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET

8.5 Rush Yds

Hit rate · Last 10 40%4/10 Odds imply —

Season avg: 9.6
Graph avg: 7.8
Graph median: 6.0-1–20
Over the close: 50%5/10

2026 per game

Pass Yds272.2▲+46.1

Att37.8▲+5.4

Cmp%71.4%▲+4.6

Pass TD2.2▲+0.1

INT0.6-0.0

Rush Yds9.6▲+4.5

Snaps64.4▲+4.7

Snap %100.0%▲+12.2

8.5

2025

0

Dec 07
5

Dec 14
6

Dec 21
2

Dec 28
17

Jan 04
2026

20

Sep 13
-1

Sep 20
13

Sep 27
6

Oct 04
10

Oct 11
?

Oct 25

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 8.5

Home 57% 8/14 · avg 10.6
Away 38% 6/16 · avg 8.8
vs BAL 0% 0/4 · avg 5.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 3.5 70% 7/10
O 8.5 Today 40% 4/10
O 13.5 20% 2/10
O 18.5 10% 1/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs BAL

What BAL allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds254.9#5
Yds/Att7.2#12
Cmp%66.5%#6
Pass TD0.9#30
Pass Att35.2#6

QBs vs BAL · 2026

Each main QB who faced BAL this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+4.7

Avg diff %+58%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Deshaun Watson	29	33.4	-13%
Oct 04	Cam Ward	27	7.8	+246%
Sep 27	Dak Prescott	19	10.8	+76%
Sep 20	Tyler Shough	23	16.2	+42%
Sep 13	Daniel Jones	4	10.2	-61%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CIN offense

CIN offense: Share of CIN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%14.4 yds	3%15.0 yds	7%11.0 yds
Short	32%6.1 yds	19%8.2 yds	34%6.0 yds

Share of CIN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

BAL defense

BAL defense: Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%12.5 yds#9	5%16.1 yds#14	6%15.7 yds#3
Short	31%5.6 yds#17	18%6.3 yds#23	34%5.3 yds#20

Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%14.4 yds	3%15.0 yds	7%11.0 yds
Short	32%6.1 yds	19%8.4 yds	35%6.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of CIN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tee Higgins WR	5	8.6	43	22.4%
2	Ja'Marr Chase WR	5	7.6	38	22.2%
3	Chase Brown RB	5	5.6	28	14.6%
4	Mitchell Tinsley WR	1	7.0	7	13.2%
5	Mike Gesicki TE	4	4.2	17	11.1%
6	Erick All TE	2	3.0	6	9.7%
7	Dohnte Meyers WR	5	3.6	18	8.6%
8	Andrei Iosivas WR	2	2.0	4	6.0%
9	Drew Sample TE	3	2.0	6	5.8%
10	Samaje Perine RB	5	2.0	10	5.7%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 8.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ MIA	10	Over	8.5	65 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	vs JAX	6	Under	8.5	76 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ PIT	13	Over	5.5	57 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	@ HOU	-1	Under	8.5	60 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs TB	20	Over	8.5	64 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs CLE	17	Over	3.5	67 (99%)
2025-12-28	17	vs ARI	2	Under	4.5	64 (83%)
2025-12-21	16	@ MIA	6	Under	5.5	55 (90%)
2025-12-14	15	vs BAL	5	Under	5.5	76 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ BUF	0	Under	6.5	60 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 8.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 12m ago.