NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Bo Nix QB

DEN vs ARI · Sun Oct 25 · 4:05 PM ET

14.5 Rush Yds

Hit rate · Last 10 30%3/10 Odds imply —

Season avg: 6.2
Graph avg: 16.8
Graph median: 10.02–49
Over the close: 20%2/10

2026 per game

Pass Yds174.8▼-59.1

Att31.5▼-5.1

Cmp%60.3%▼-2.6

Pass TD1.0▼-0.6

INT0.5▼-0.2

Rush Yds6.2▼-15.2

Snaps61.2▼-5.9

Snap %99.7%+0.0

14.5

2025

11

Dec 21
42

Dec 25
49

Jan 04
29

Jan 17
2026

2

Sep 14
6

Sep 20
7

Sep 27
10

Oct 04
10

Oct 11
2

Oct 15
?

Oct 25

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 14.5

Home 38% 8/21 · avg 17.6
Away 71% 15/21 · avg 25.0
vs ARI No games

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 4.5 80% 8/10
O 9.5 60% 6/10
O 14.5 Today 30% 3/10
O 19.5 30% 3/10
O 24.5 30% 3/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds252.9#6
Yds/Att8.1#2
Cmp%66.7%#4
Pass TD2.7#1
Pass Att31.2#24

QBs vs ARI · 2026

Each main QB who faced ARI this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-1.4

Avg diff %-45%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Matthew Stafford	0	4.2	-100%
Oct 11	Jared Goff	1	3.8	-73%
Oct 04	Jameis Winston	0	11.5	-100%
Sep 27	Brock Purdy	34	23.5	+45%
Sep 13	Justin Herbert	29	27.8	+4%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DEN offense

DEN offense: Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%13.5 yds	2%9.8 yds	5%8.0 yds
Short	36%5.3 yds	10%3.8 yds	40%4.2 yds

Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%12.4 yds#10	3%14.2 yds#18	10%10.3 yds#19
Short	30%6.3 yds#8	19%9.0 yds#2	32%7.3 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%14.7 yds	1%12.2 yds	6%5.5 yds
Short	36%5.5 yds	11%3.6 yds	38%4.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of DEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Jaylen Waddle WR	6	6.3	38	22.6%
2	RJ Harvey RB	5	5.2	26	17.0%
3	Courtland Sutton WR	6	4.7	28	16.1%
4	Evan Engram TE	6	3.2	19	11.3%
5	Pat Bryant WR	4	3.0	12	10.0%
6	Marvin Mims Jr. WR	4	2.2	9	8.4%
7	Adam Trautman TE	2	2.0	4	6.9%
8	Lil'Jordan Humphrey WR	2	1.5	3	6.3%
9	J.K. Dobbins RB	6	1.5	9	5.6%
10	Nate Adkins TE	3	1.7	5	5.6%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 14.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-15	6	vs SEA	2	Under	13.5	60 (100%)
2026-10-11	5	@ LAC	10	Under	13.5	62 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ SF	10	Under	16.5	65 (98%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LA	7	Under	16.5	67 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs JAX	6	Under	17.5	62 (100%)
2026-09-14	1	@ KC	2	Under	18.5	51 (100%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	vs BUF	29	Over	24.5	72 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs LAC	49	Over	49.5	59 (100%)
2025-12-25	17	@ KC	42	Over	35.5	72 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	vs JAX	11	Under	17.5	66 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 13.5Underdog 14.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Underdog, updated 10m ago.