NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

DeMario Douglas WR

NE vs CHI · Thu Oct 22 · 8:15 PM ET

3.5 Receptions O +135U -173

Hit rate · Last 10 · Away 10%1/10 Odds imply 40.2% Over

Season avg: 3.3
Graph avg: 1.9
Graph median: 1.50–5
Over the close: 30%3/10

2026 per game

Targets5.0▲+2.1

Rec3.3▲+1.4

Rec Yds38.8▲+12.3

Rec TD0.5▲+0.3

Snaps36.5▲+18.6

Snap %53.7%▲+26.5

3.5

2025

3

Oct 12
3

Oct 19
2

Nov 09
1

Nov 23
1

Dec 21
1

Dec 28
0

Jan 25
2026

5

Sep 09
1

Sep 27
2

Oct 04
?

Oct 23

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 3.5

Home 43% 9/21 · avg 3.1
Away 29% 6/21 · avg 2.8
vs CHI 100% 1/1 · avg 4.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 50% 5/10
O 2.5 30% 3/10
O 3.5 Today 10% 1/10
O 4.5 10% 1/10
O 5.5 0% 0/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs CHI

What CHI allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds183.7#2
Receptions12.0#10
Targets19.1#12
Yds/Target9.6#1
Rec TD1.1#5

WRs vs CHI · 2026

Each main WR who faced CHI this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.4

Avg diff %-2%

Beat their average42% (5/12)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Drake London	4	5.4	-26%
Oct 18	Jahan Dotson	3	1.6	+88%
Oct 11	Matthew Golden	6	4.8	+25%
Oct 11	Christian Watson	6	4.6	+30%
Oct 04	Garrett Wilson	3	6.4	-53%
Oct 04	Isaiah Williams	2	1.8	+11%
Sep 28	DeVonta Smith	6	6.7	-10%
Sep 28	Dontayvion Wicks	2	3.4	-41%
Sep 20	Justin Jefferson	3	5.3	-44%
Sep 20	Jordan Addison	2	3.0	-33%
Sep 13	Tetairoa McMillan	5	6.8	-26%
Sep 13	Jalen Coker	8	5.3	+50%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NE offense

NE offense: Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%10.7 yds	3%10.5 yds	10%14.9 yds
Short	30%5.4 yds	16%7.2 yds	29%5.9 yds

Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

CHI defense

CHI defense: Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%13.1 yds#8	4%21.1 yds#1	9%12.8 yds#10
Short	29%4.5 yds#32	19%8.5 yds#5	31%6.5 yds#4

Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	19%4.8 yds	2%0.0 yds	10%18.5 yds
Short	24%5.2 yds	17%9.3 yds	29%7.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of NE targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	A.J. Brown WR	2	7.0	14	23.1%
2	DeMario Douglas WR	6	5.0	30	16.7%
3	Mack Hollins WR	4	5.0	20	16.7%
4	Hunter Henry TE	6	4.0	24	13.9%
5	Romeo Doubs WR	6	4.0	24	13.3%
6	Rhamondre Stevenson RB	6	3.2	19	10.4%
7	Reggie Gilliam RB	1	2.0	2	9.5%
8	Efton Chism III WR	5	2.8	14	9.0%
9	Eli Raridon TE	5	2.4	12	7.9%
10	Lan Larison RB	1	2.0	2	6.5%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 3.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ BUF	2	Under	2.5	35 (46%)
2026-09-27	3	@ JAX	1	Under	2.5	37 (59%)
2026-09-09	1	@ SEA	5	Over	1.5	44 (62%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	@ DEN	0	Under	1.5	12 (19%)
2025-12-28	17	@ NYJ	1	Under	2.5	9 (14%)
2025-12-21	16	@ BAL	1	Under	1.5	13 (18%)
2025-11-23	12	@ CIN	1	Under	1.5	12 (17%)
2025-11-09	10	@ TB	2	Under	2.5	13 (21%)
2025-10-19	7	@ TEN	3	Under	2.5	15 (23%)
2025-10-12	6	@ NO	3	Under	1.5	16 (25%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 3.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 4m ago.