NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Courtland Sutton WR

DEN vs ARI · Sun Oct 25 · 4:05 PM ET

3.5 Receptions

Hit rate · Last 10 20%2/10 Odds imply —

Season avg: 2.2
Graph avg: 2.5
Graph median: 2.51–4
Over the close: 0%0/10

2026 per game

Targets4.7▼-2.6

Rec2.2▼-2.1

Rec Yds20.5▼-36.7

Rec TD0.2▼-0.3

Snaps47.7▼-9.7

Snap %77.8%▼-7.9

3.5

2025

4

Dec 25
1

Jan 04
4

Jan 17
3

Jan 25
2026

2

Sep 14
3

Sep 20
3

Sep 27
1

Oct 04
2

Oct 11
2

Oct 15
?

Oct 25

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 3.5

Home 59% 13/22 · avg 4.2
Away 65% 13/20 · avg 4.3
vs ARI No games

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 80% 8/10
O 2.5 50% 5/10
O 3.5 Today 20% 2/10
O 4.5 0% 0/10
O 5.5 0% 0/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds133.9#22
Receptions9.4#30
Targets14.9#30
Yds/Target9.0#6
Rec TD1.5#1

WRs vs ARI · 2026

Each main WR who faced ARI this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-1.2

Avg diff %-15%

Beat their average17% (2/12)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Puka Nacua	6	10.3	-42%
Oct 18	Davante Adams	3	5.4	-44%
Oct 11	Amon-Ra St. Brown	6	7.8	-23%
Oct 11	Jameson Williams	2	4.0	-50%
Oct 04	Malik Nabers	6	7.0	-14%
Oct 04	Malachi Fields	2	2.0	+0%
Sep 27	Mike Evans	3	5.2	-43%
Sep 27	Deebo Samuel Sr.	0	4.0	-100%
Sep 20	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	9	8.0	+12%
Sep 20	Cooper Kupp	2	2.8	-29%
Sep 13	Tre Harris	3	3.0	+0%
Sep 13	Ladd McConkey	5	2.0	+150%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DEN offense

DEN offense: Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%13.5 yds	2%9.8 yds	5%8.0 yds
Short	36%5.3 yds	10%3.8 yds	40%4.2 yds

Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%12.4 yds#10	3%14.2 yds#18	10%10.3 yds#19
Short	30%6.3 yds#8	19%9.0 yds#2	32%7.3 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	13%7.1 yds	6%0.0 yds	13%3.6 yds
Short	30%2.8 yds	4%4.5 yds	35%5.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Jaylen Waddle WR	6	6.3	38	22.6%
2	RJ Harvey RB	5	5.2	26	17.0%
3	Courtland Sutton WR	6	4.7	28	16.1%
4	Evan Engram TE	6	3.2	19	11.3%
5	Pat Bryant WR	4	3.0	12	10.0%
6	Marvin Mims Jr. WR	4	2.2	9	8.4%
7	Adam Trautman TE	2	2.0	4	6.9%
8	Lil'Jordan Humphrey WR	2	1.5	3	6.3%
9	J.K. Dobbins RB	6	1.5	9	5.6%
10	Nate Adkins TE	3	1.7	5	5.6%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 3.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-15	6	vs SEA	2	Under	3.5	46 (77%)
2026-10-11	5	@ LAC	2	Under	3.5	50 (81%)
2026-10-04	4	@ SF	1	Under	3.5	48 (73%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LA	3	Under	3.5	58 (87%)
2026-09-20	2	vs JAX	3	Under	3.5	45 (73%)
2026-09-14	1	@ KC	2	Under	3.5	39 (76%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	vs NE	3	Under	4.5	54 (93%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	vs BUF	4	Over	4.5	61 (85%)
2026-01-04	18	vs LAC	1	Under	1.5	46 (78%)
2025-12-25	17	@ KC	4	Over	4.5	59 (82%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 3.5Underdog 3.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Underdog, updated 10m ago.