NFL Prop Research

JJ

Justin Jefferson WR

MIN vs IND · Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET

6.5 Receptions

Hit rate · Last 10 · Home 30%3/10 Odds imply —

Season avg

4.8

Graph avg

5.2

Graph median

5.02–8

Over the close

33%3/9

2026 per game

Targets6.0▼-2.3

Rec4.8▼-0.2

Rec Yds64.5▲+2.9

Rec TD0.8▲+0.6

Snaps45.5▼-9.9

Snap %73.2%▼-20.9

Splits all logged games · over 6.5

• Home 44% 8/18 · avg 5.7
• Away 24% 5/21 · avg 5.1
• vs IND 100% 1/1 · avg 7.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

• O 4.5 60% 6/10
• O 5.5 30% 3/10
• O 6.5 Today 30% 3/10
• O 7.5 30% 3/10
• O 8.5 0% 0/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs IND

What IND allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

• Rec Yds158.0#12
• Receptions11.8#12
• Targets18.5#15
• Yds/Target8.5#13
• Rec TD0.8#22

WRs vs IND · 2026

Each main WR who faced IND this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.5

Avg diff %-12%

Beat their average33% (4/12)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	TEN Carnell Tate	6	4.6	+30%
Oct 18	TEN Wan'Dale Robinson	3	4.4	-32%
Oct 11	PIT DK Metcalf	3	5.4	-44%
Oct 11	PIT Germie Bernard	6	4.5	+33%
Oct 04	WAS Stefon Diggs	5	4.3	+15%
Oct 04	WAS Antonio Williams	3	3.0	+0%
Sep 27	HOU Xavier Hutchinson	3	3.0	+0%
Sep 27	HOU Jaylin Noel	2	3.0	-33%
Sep 20	KC Rashee Rice	4	4.5	-11%
Sep 20	KC Xavier Worthy	5	4.0	+25%
Sep 13	BAL Zay Flowers	5	6.8	-26%
Sep 13	BAL Rashod Bateman	0	3.2	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

MIN offense

MIN offense: Share of MIN pass attempts, last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	11%15.9 yds	2%11.2 yds	8%7.5 yds
Short	27%4.8 yds	17%7.4 yds	35%5.5 yds

Share of MIN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

IND defense

IND defense: Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%12.2 yds#11	3%13.7 yds#22	10%11.7 yds#12
Short	30%6.0 yds#12	20%9.2 yds#1	33%5.8 yds#12

Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%15.5 yds	3%11.0 yds	9%6.7 yds
Short	27%3.7 yds	18%10.2 yds	30%6.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Target share · MIN 2026

Each pass-catcher’s share of MIN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Justin Jefferson WR	4	6.0	24	25.7%
2	Jordan Addison WR	4	5.5	22	22.3%
3	T.J. Hockenson TE	5	5.4	27	20.3%
4	Aaron Jones RB	5	3.6	18	12.6%
5	Gavin Bartholomew TE	2	3.5	7	11.9%
6	Josh Oliver TE	3	1.7	5	7.6%
7	Tai Felton WR	3	2.0	6	7.1%
8	Myles Price WR	5	1.4	7	5.0%
9	Jauan Jennings WR	4	1.2	5	4.7%
10	Ben Yurosek TE	1	1.0	1	3.4%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 6.5	Close	Snaps
2026-09-13	1	vs GB	8	Over	5.5	60 (92%)
2026-01-04	18	vs GB	8	Over	5.5	51 (76%)
2025-12-25	17	vs DET	4	Under	5.5	53 (98%)
2025-12-07	14	vs WAS	2	Under	2.5	51 (80%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CHI	5	Under	5.5	55 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	vs BAL	4	Under	5.5	65 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	vs PHI	5	Under	5.5	68 (99%)
2025-09-21	3	vs CIN	5	Under	5.5	48 (80%)
2025-09-14	2	vs ATL	3	Under	2.5	47 (100%)
2024-12-29	17	vs GB	8	Over	—	68 (94%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 6.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Underdog, updated 7m ago.