NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Adonai Mitchell WR

NYJ vs LV · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

1.5 Receptions O -171U +133

Hit rate · Last 10 · Away 50%5/10 Odds imply 59.5% Over

Season avg: 3.0
Graph avg: 2.0
Graph median: 1.50–6
Over the close: 50%4/8

2026 per game

Targets6.0▲+1.4

Rec3.0▲+0.9

Rec Yds41.0▲+12.7

Rec TD0.0▼-0.1

Snaps44.3▲+13.2

Snap %65.0%▲+14.4

1.5

2025

0

Sep 21
3

Sep 28
1

Oct 19
1

Nov 02
1

Nov 13
2

Nov 23
6

Dec 14
3

Dec 21
0

Jan 04
2026

3

Sep 13
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 1.5

Home 41% 7/17 · avg 1.9
Away 42% 8/19 · avg 1.7
vs LV 0% 0/1 · avg 0.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 80% 8/10
O 1.5 Today 50% 5/10
O 2.5 40% 4/10
O 3.5 10% 1/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs LV

What LV allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds142.3#15
Receptions9.8#28
Targets16.8#25
Yds/Target8.5#11
Rec TD0.8#16

WRs vs LV · 2026

Each main WR who faced LV this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.1

Avg diff %+12%

Beat their average50% (7/14)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Puka Nacua	8	9.2	-14%
Oct 25	Konata Mumpfield	1	1.6	-38%
Oct 18	Khalil Shakir	4	3.6	+11%
Oct 18	Keon Coleman	4	3.0	+33%
Oct 11	DeMario Douglas	4	3.2	+26%
Oct 11	Romeo Doubs	1	2.6	-62%
Oct 04	Xavier Worthy	4	4.0	+0%
Oct 04	Tyquan Thornton	5	2.0	+150%
Sep 27	Chris Olave	9	6.7	+35%
Sep 27	Devaughn Vele	3	5.0	-40%
Sep 20	Tre Harris	1	3.5	-71%
Sep 20	Ladd McConkey	3	2.5	+20%
Sep 13	Malik Washington	3	4.6	-35%
Sep 13	Caleb Douglas	5	2.0	+150%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NYJ offense

NYJ offense: Share of NYJ pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%13.4 yds	2%26.4 yds	5%15.2 yds
Short	33%5.6 yds	11%5.0 yds	43%5.3 yds

Share of NYJ pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LV defense

LV defense: Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%13.5 yds#7	4%10.8 yds#29	7%10.4 yds#17
Short	32%5.7 yds#16	15%6.6 yds#21	33%5.8 yds#11

Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	17%6.5 yds	1%16.0 yds	14%10.3 yds
Short	39%5.7 yds	1%2.0 yds	27%3.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of NYJ targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Garrett Wilson WR	7	7.3	51	25.9%
2	Adonai Mitchell WR	3	6.0	18	18.9%
3	Mason Taylor TE	4	4.5	18	16.2%
4	Omar Cooper Jr. WR	3	4.3	13	15.2%
5	Kenyon Sadiq TE	7	3.6	25	13.5%
6	Braelon Allen RB	7	2.9	20	10.5%
7	Breece Hall RB	3	3.3	10	10.3%
8	Tim Patrick WR	2	3.0	6	10.3%
9	Isaiah Williams WR	7	2.0	14	7.6%
10	Jeremy Ruckert TE	4	2.0	8	5.9%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 1.5	Close	Snaps
2026-09-13	1	@ TEN	3	Over	2.5	46 (69%)
2026-01-04	18	@ BUF	0	Under	—	25 (52%)
2025-12-21	16	@ NO	3	Over	2.5	57 (86%)
2025-12-14	15	@ JAX	6	Over	3.5	54 (79%)
2025-11-23	12	@ BAL	2	Over	2.5	50 (85%)
2025-11-13	11	@ NE	1	Under	1.5	28 (49%)
2025-11-02	9	@ PIT	1	Under	—	4 (5%)
2025-10-19	7	@ LAC	1	Under	1.5	5 (8%)
2025-09-28	4	@ LA	3	Over	2.5	54 (89%)
2025-09-21	3	@ TEN	0	Under	1.5	24 (42%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 1.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 10m ago.