NFL Prop Research

FREE

Game logs through Oct 8, 2026 · 172 players

T.J. Hockenson TE

MIN vs NO ·

4.5 Receptions O -102U -125
Hit rate · Last 10 · Away 20%2/10 Odds imply 47.6% Over
Season avg
5.5
Graph avg
3.4
Graph median
3.51–6
Over the close
44%4/9
2026 per game
Targets6.5â–²+2.1
Rec5.5â–²+2.1
Rec Yds48.8â–²+19.6
Rec TD0.2+0.0
Snaps48.5â–²+2.4
Snap %75.8%â–¼-2.2
T.J. Hockenson receptions by game, oldest to newest, against today’s line of 4.5.
  1. 2025
    4
  2. 6
  3. 2
  4. 2
  5. 4
  6. 6
  7. 4
  8. 1
  9. 2026
    3
  10. 2
  11. ?

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 4.5

  • Home 38% 5/13 · avg 4.3
  • Away 29% 5/17 · avg 3.7
  • vs NO No games

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

  • O 2.5 60% 6/10
  • O 3.5 50% 5/10
  • O 4.5 Today 20% 2/10
  • O 5.5 20% 2/10
  • O 6.5 0% 0/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs NO

What NO allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec YdsReceptionsTargetsYds/TargetRec TD
  • Rec Yds58.5#12
  • Receptions5.8#10
  • Targets8.3#7
  • Yds/Target7.0#18
  • Rec TD0.3#22

TEs vs NO · 2026

Each main TE who faced NO this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.6
Avg diff %-15%
Beat their average25% (1/4)
DatePlayerResultTheir avgDiff
Oct 05 Austin Hooper12.0-50%
Sep 27 Michael Mayer35.7-47%
Sep 20 Mark Andrews64.0+50%
Sep 13 Sam LaPorta55.7-12%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

MIN offense

MIN offense: Share of MIN pass attempts, last 10 games
DepthLeftMiddleRight
Deep10%14.4 yds2%11.2 yds8%6.9 yds
Short26%4.6 yds18%7.0 yds35%5.2 yds

Share of MIN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NO defense

NO defense: Throws NO faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
DepthLeftMiddleRight
Deep9%7.7 yds#262%16.0 yds#157%12.2 yds#10
Short33%6.3 yds#913%6.7 yds#1737%4.6 yds#29

Throws NO faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
DepthLeftMiddleRight
Deep6%6.0 yds4%22.5 yds8%17.8 yds
Short28%6.1 yds26%7.5 yds29%5.1 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Target share · MIN 2026

Each pass-catcher’s share of MIN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#PlayerGPTgt/gTotalShare
1Justin Jefferson WR35.71726.2%
2T.J. Hockenson TE46.52624.5%
3Jordan Addison WR45.52222.3%
4Aaron Jones RB43.81513.1%
5Josh Oliver TE31.757.6%
6Tai Felton WR21.535.5%
7Jauan Jennings WR31.345.1%
8DeeJay Dallas RB40.833.2%
9Gavin Bartholomew TE11.013.0%
10Myles Price WR40.832.8%

Game log · 10 games

DateWkOppReceptionsvs 4.5CloseSnaps
2026-09-273@ TB2Under3.550 (85%)
2026-09-202@ CHI3Under3.536 (69%)
2025-12-2116@ NYG1Under2.546 (75%)
2025-12-1415@ DAL4Under2.544 (80%)
2025-11-3013@ SEA6Over3.541 (79%)
2025-11-2312@ GB4Under—30 (68%)
2025-11-029@ DET2Under2.548 (77%)
2025-10-238@ LAC2Under2.540 (82%)
2025-10-055@ CLE6Over3.555 (85%)
2025-09-284@ PIT4Under3.571 (93%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 7m ago.