NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Tez Johnson WR

TB vs ATL · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

1.5 Receptions O -101U -126

Hit rate · Last 10 40%4/10 Odds imply 47.4% Over

Season avg: 1.3
Graph avg: 1.3
Graph median: 1.00–2
Over the close: 40%2/5

2026 per game

Targets2.1▼-0.8

Rec1.3▼-0.6

Rec Yds25.4▲+4.0

Rec TD0.1▼-0.2

Snaps25.3▼-5.4

Snap %38.4%▼-8.7

1.5

2025

1

Dec 21
2

Dec 28
1

Jan 03
2026

0

Sep 13
1

Sep 20
1

Sep 27
2

Oct 04
1

Oct 08
2

Oct 18
2

Oct 25
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 1.5

Home 27% 3/11 · avg 1.3
Away 54% 6/11 · avg 2.1
vs ATL 0% 0/2 · avg 0.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 90% 9/10
O 1.5 Today 40% 4/10
O 2.5 0% 0/10
O 3.5 0% 0/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs ATL

What ATL allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds152.1#12
Receptions12.4#8
Targets20.1#6
Yds/Target7.6#21
Rec TD0.7#22

WRs vs ATL · 2026

Each main WR who faced ATL this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+1.1

Avg diff %+36%

Beat their average71% (10/14)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Jordan Watkins	3	1.5	+100%
Oct 25	Brandin Cooks	1	0.7	+50%
Oct 18	Luther Burden III	8	4.5	+78%
Oct 18	Kalif Raymond	2	4.0	-50%
Oct 11	Zay Flowers	8	6.4	+25%
Oct 11	Rashod Bateman	5	2.2	+131%
Oct 05	Chris Olave	8	6.8	+17%
Oct 05	Devaughn Vele	6	4.5	+33%
Sep 24	Matthew Golden	5	5.2	-3%
Sep 24	Christian Watson	7	4.5	+56%
Sep 20	Tetairoa McMillan	5	6.2	-19%
Sep 20	Jalen Coker	8	4.2	+88%
Sep 13	DK Metcalf	4	4.7	-14%
Sep 13	Roman Wilson	3	2.8	+9%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TB offense

TB offense: Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%9.9 yds	4%13.4 yds	6%8.5 yds
Short	34%5.1 yds	14%7.2 yds	36%5.3 yds

Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ATL defense

ATL defense: Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.6 yds#27	3%19.0 yds#4	8%9.4 yds#22
Short	32%6.4 yds#8	14%6.6 yds#22	33%5.3 yds#19

Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%0.0 yds	5%49.0 yds	32%19.5 yds
Short	37%2.1 yds	0%	21%8.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of TB targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Emeka Egbuka WR	6	8.2	49	25.6%
2	Chris Godwin Jr. WR	7	4.9	34	19.9%
3	Cade Otton TE	7	4.3	30	15.3%
4	Ted Hurst III WR	6	3.8	23	12.7%
5	Bucky Irving RB	7	3.3	23	12.4%
6	Tez Johnson WR	7	2.1	15	8.4%
7	Kenny Gainwell RB	7	2.4	17	8.0%
8	Payne Durham TE	2	1.0	2	3.4%
9	Jalen McMillan WR	1	1.0	1	2.9%
10	Kameron Johnson WR	7	0.3	2	1.1%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 1.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-25	7	@ CAR	2	Over	2.5	41 (65%)
2026-10-18	6	vs PIT	2	Over	0.5	25 (34%)
2026-10-08	5	@ DAL	1	Under	1.5	28 (39%)
2026-10-04	4	vs GB	2	Over	1.5	35 (56%)
2026-09-27	3	vs MIN	1	Under	—	16 (23%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CLE	1	Under	—	19 (29%)
2026-09-13	1	@ CIN	0	Under	1.5	13 (23%)
2026-01-03	18	vs CAR	1	Under	—	9 (13%)
2025-12-28	17	@ MIA	2	Over	—	11 (16%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CAR	1	Under	—	16 (25%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 5m ago.