NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

AJ Barner TE

SEA vs KC · Sun Oct 25 · 8:20 PM ET

24.5 Rec Yds

Hit rate · Last 10 · Away 50%5/10 Odds imply —

Season avg: 23.0
Graph avg: 34.3
Graph median: 25.58–70
Over the close: 33%3/9

2026 per game

Targets4.0▲+0.2

Rec2.5▼-0.4

Rec Yds23.0▼-6.3

Rec TD0.0▼-0.3

Snaps59.0▲+9.1

Snap %89.5%▲+10.5

24.5

2025

24

Nov 02
70

Nov 16
18

Nov 23
27

Dec 07
43

Dec 28
14

Jan 03
54

Feb 08
2026

8

Sep 20
69

Sep 27
16

Oct 15
?

Oct 26

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 24.5

Home 29% 6/21 · avg 18.5
Away 50% 10/20 · avg 29.0
vs KC No games

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 14.5 80% 8/10
O 19.5 60% 6/10
O 24.5 Today 50% 5/10
O 29.5 40% 4/10
O 34.5 40% 4/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs KC

What KC allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds59.4#9
Receptions6.3#8
Targets8.8#6
Yds/Target6.8#19
Rec TD0.5#11

TEs vs KC · 2026

Each main TE who faced KC this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-5.6

Avg diff %-7%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Charlie Kolar	20	19.3	+3%
Oct 04	Brock Bowers	86	98.7	-13%
Sep 27	Greg Dulcich	55	24.0	+129%
Sep 20	Tyler Warren	21	48.0	-56%
Sep 14	Nate Adkins	0	20.0	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

SEA offense

SEA offense: Share of SEA pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%7.0 yds	4%11.5 yds	7%16.4 yds
Short	32%6.3 yds	16%7.5 yds	36%6.2 yds

Share of SEA pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

KC defense

KC defense: Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%11.7 yds#12	5%14.2 yds#20	5%4.2 yds#31
Short	27%5.0 yds#27	17%6.2 yds#24	37%4.8 yds#28

Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	3%16.0 yds
Short	43%5.8 yds	14%5.6 yds	40%8.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of SEA targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR	6	11.0	66	35.6%
2	Rashid Shaheed WR	6	4.5	27	14.9%
3	Cooper Kupp WR	6	4.2	25	12.4%
4	AJ Barner TE	6	4.0	24	12.4%
5	Jadarian Price RB	3	2.3	7	7.6%
6	Tory Horton WR	3	3.0	9	7.5%
7	George Holani RB	6	2.0	12	6.5%
8	Emanuel Wilson RB	6	1.3	8	5.6%
9	Elijah Arroyo TE	2	1.0	2	3.8%
10	Brady Russell RB	5	0.6	3	2.1%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 24.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-15	6	@ DEN	16	Under	27.5	79 (93%)
2026-09-27	3	@ WAS	69	Over	20.5	61 (91%)
2026-09-20	2	@ ARI	8	Under	22.5	56 (80%)
2026-02-08	22 (P)	@ NE	54	Over	24.5	65 (90%)
2026-01-03	18	@ SF	14	Under	38.5	42 (61%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CAR	43	Over	43.5	52 (79%)
2025-12-07	14	@ ATL	27	Over	31.5	41 (67%)
2025-11-23	12	@ TEN	18	Under	25.5	38 (79%)
2025-11-16	11	@ LA	70	Over	60.5	73 (87%)
2025-11-02	9	@ WAS	24	Under	—	43 (84%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 24.5Underdog 24.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Underdog, updated 13m ago.