NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Amon-Ra St. Brown WR

DET vs GB · Sun Oct 25 · 4:25 PM ET

79.5 Rec Yds

Hit rate · Last 10 · Away 40%4/10 Odds imply —

Season avg: 74.4
Graph avg: 90.2
Graph median: 72.042–164
Over the close: 40%4/10

2026 per game

Targets11.4▲+1.3

Rec7.4▲+0.5

Rec Yds74.4▼-8.0

Rec TD1.0▲+0.4

Snaps60.8▲+5.6

Snap %88.2%▲+3.0

79.5

2025

100

Oct 05
45

Oct 12
58

Nov 09
42

Nov 16
164

Dec 14
68

Dec 25
139

Jan 04
2026

142

Sep 17
75

Oct 04
69

Oct 11
?

Oct 25

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 79.5

Home 45% 9/20 · avg 80.8
Away 25% 5/20 · avg 77.8
vs GB 0% 0/4 · avg 36.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 59.5 70% 7/10
O 69.5 50% 5/10
O 79.5 Today 40% 4/10
O 89.5 40% 4/10
O 99.5 40% 4/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs GB

What GB allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds134.7#21
Receptions12.2#9
Targets19.2#11
Yds/Target7.0#27
Rec TD0.9#13

WRs vs GB · 2026

Each main WR who faced GB this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-2.6

Avg diff %-7%

Beat their average33% (4/12)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	CeeDee Lamb	70	101.4	-31%
Oct 18	George Pickens	73	71.0	+3%
Oct 11	Luther Burden III	47	62.8	-25%
Oct 11	Rome Odunze	40	54.4	-26%
Oct 04	Emeka Egbuka	13	45.4	-71%
Oct 04	Chris Godwin Jr.	31	37.0	-16%
Sep 24	Drake London	194	71.2	+172%
Sep 24	Jahan Dotson	11	45.0	-76%
Sep 20	Garrett Wilson	57	72.2	-21%
Sep 20	Isaiah Williams	34	23.4	+45%
Sep 13	Justin Jefferson	92	55.3	+66%
Sep 13	Jordan Addison	0	54.3	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DET offense

DET offense: Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%15.4 yds	6%13.8 yds	6%14.0 yds
Short	30%5.1 yds	25%8.5 yds	29%6.0 yds

Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

GB defense

GB defense: Throws GB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%13.8 yds#6	4%10.1 yds#32	7%5.3 yds#29
Short	25%5.1 yds#26	21%6.0 yds#26	35%5.8 yds#11

Throws GB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	3%21.5 yds	9%10.4 yds	4%18.6 yds
Short	27%4.4 yds	23%7.5 yds	33%6.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DET targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Amon-Ra St. Brown WR	5	11.4	57	31.1%
2	Sam LaPorta TE	5	7.4	37	18.9%
3	Jahmyr Gibbs RB	5	6.8	34	18.8%
4	Jameson Williams WR	5	5.8	29	15.2%
5	Isaac TeSlaa WR	5	3.8	19	9.6%
6	Brock Wright TE	5	1.2	6	3.3%
7	Jackson Meeks WR	1	1.0	1	3.2%
8	Sione Vaki RB	5	1.0	5	2.5%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 79.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ ARI	69	Under	81.5	57 (86%)
2026-10-04	4	@ CAR	75	Under	78.5	68 (96%)
2026-09-17	2	@ BUF	142	Over	79.5	62 (95%)
2026-01-04	18	@ CHI	139	Over	114.5	69 (95%)
2025-12-25	17	@ MIN	68	Under	80.5	53 (83%)
2025-12-14	15	@ LA	164	Over	79.5	61 (95%)
2025-11-16	11	@ PHI	42	Under	42.5	57 (97%)
2025-11-09	10	@ WAS	58	Under	58.5	54 (77%)
2025-10-12	6	@ KC	45	Under	53.5	48 (89%)
2025-10-05	5	@ CIN	100	Over	75.5	50 (81%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 79.5PrizePicks 82.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Underdog, updated 14m ago.