NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Malik Washington WR

MIA vs NYJ · Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET

39.5 Rec Yds

Hit rate · Last 10 50%5/10 Odds imply —

Season avg: 52.4
Graph avg: 31.5
Graph median: 33.04–67
Over the close: 50%5/10

2026 per game

Targets7.2▲+3.4

Rec4.6▲+1.9

Rec Yds52.4▲+33.8

Rec TD0.0▼-0.2

Snaps49.6▲+16.5

Snap %84.8%▲+27.8

39.5

2025

10

Dec 07
10

Dec 15
23

Dec 21
4

Dec 28
6

Jan 04
2026

53

Sep 13
43

Sep 20
56

Sep 27
67

Oct 04
43

Oct 11
?

Oct 25

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 39.5

Home 24% 4/17 · avg 20.0
Away 32% 6/19 · avg 24.3
vs NYJ 25% 1/4 · avg 17.8

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 29.5 50% 5/10
O 34.5 50% 5/10
O 39.5 Today 50% 5/10
O 44.5 30% 3/10
O 49.5 30% 3/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs NYJ

What NYJ allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds146.6#14
Receptions11.6#16
Targets18.3#16
Yds/Target8.0#16
Rec TD1.2#4

WRs vs NYJ · 2026

Each main WR who faced NYJ this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-17.6

Avg diff %-17%

Beat their average25% (3/12)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Romeo Doubs	42	43.8	-4%
Oct 18	DeMario Douglas	86	29.4	+193%
Oct 11	Denzel Boston	46	59.8	-23%
Oct 11	KC Concepcion	5	36.2	-86%
Oct 04	Luther Burden III	63	59.6	+6%
Oct 04	Kalif Raymond	6	47.6	-87%
Sep 27	Amon-Ra St. Brown	19	88.2	-78%
Sep 27	Jameson Williams	49	56.8	-14%
Sep 20	Christian Watson	41	99.4	-59%
Sep 20	Matthew Golden	58	88.6	-35%
Sep 13	Carnell Tate	38	61.2	-38%
Sep 13	Wan'Dale Robinson	38	32.0	+19%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

MIA offense

MIA offense: Share of MIA pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%7.9 yds	8%12.1 yds	9%10.8 yds
Short	30%7.0 yds	14%7.1 yds	32%4.6 yds

Share of MIA pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NYJ defense

NYJ defense: Throws NYJ faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%10.0 yds#20	4%14.6 yds#17	8%14.2 yds#4
Short	30%5.3 yds#25	19%7.0 yds#17	31%6.5 yds#5

Throws NYJ faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%6.7 yds	8%13.5 yds	12%2.8 yds
Short	31%6.1 yds	10%5.6 yds	26%6.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of MIA targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Malik Washington WR	5	7.2	36	28.0%
2	Caleb Douglas WR	2	5.0	10	19.5%
3	Kevin Coleman Jr. WR	4	4.2	17	17.3%
4	De'Von Achane RB	3	4.0	12	15.8%
5	Greg Dulcich TE	4	4.2	17	14.9%
6	Chris Bell WR	5	3.0	15	11.4%
7	Jalen Tolbert WR	2	1.5	3	6.8%
8	DJ Herman RB	2	1.5	3	6.5%
9	Will Kacmarek TE	5	1.2	6	5.5%
10	Ollie Gordon II RB	4	1.2	5	5.1%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 39.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs CIN	43	Over	46.5	53 (80%)
2026-10-04	4	@ MIN	67	Over	40.5	34 (87%)
2026-09-27	3	vs KC	56	Over	38.5	63 (86%)
2026-09-20	2	@ SF	43	Over	34.5	43 (73%)
2026-09-13	1	@ LV	53	Over	27.5	55 (98%)
2026-01-04	18	@ NE	6	Under	23.5	39 (70%)
2025-12-28	17	vs TB	4	Under	10.5	35 (64%)
2025-12-21	16	vs CIN	23	Under	17.5	31 (53%)
2025-12-15	15	@ PIT	10	Under	10.5	28 (56%)
2025-12-07	14	@ NYJ	10	Under	25.5	34 (52%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 38.5Underdog 39.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Underdog, updated 10m ago.