NFL Prop Research

JMC

Ja'Marr Chase WR

CIN vs BAL · Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET

84.5 Rec Yds

Hit rate · Last 10 · Home 70%7/10 Odds imply —

Season avg

57.8

Graph avg

96.5

Graph median

103.012–165

Over the close

70%7/10

2026 per game

Targets7.6▼-4.0

Rec5.4▼-2.4

Rec Yds57.8▼-30.5

Rec TD0.8▲+0.3

Snaps48.6▼-13.1

Snap %78.2%▼-16.2

Splits all logged games · over 84.5

• Home 67% 12/18 · avg 95.6
• Away 45% 9/20 · avg 84.5
• vs BAL 100% 4/4 · avg 174.8

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

• O 64.5 70% 7/10
• O 74.5 70% 7/10
• O 84.5 Today 70% 7/10
• O 94.5 60% 6/10
• O 104.5 50% 5/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs BAL

What BAL allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

• Rec Yds188.7#1
• Receptions13.9#1
• Targets20.8#3
• Yds/Target9.1#4
• Rec TD0.5#27

WRs vs BAL · 2026

Each main WR who faced BAL this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+8.4

Avg diff %+21%

Beat their average58% (7/12)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	CLE Denzel Boston	15	66.0	-77%
Oct 18	CLE KC Concepcion	37	29.8	+24%
Oct 11	ATL Drake London	118	86.4	+37%
Oct 11	ATL Jahan Dotson	54	36.4	+48%
Oct 04	TEN Carnell Tate	145	39.8	+264%
Oct 04	TEN Wan'Dale Robinson	19	35.8	-47%
Sep 27	DAL CeeDee Lamb	112	93.0	+20%
Sep 27	DAL George Pickens	82	69.2	+18%
Sep 20	NO Chris Olave	86	98.8	-13%
Sep 20	NO Devaughn Vele	64	46.0	+39%
Sep 13	IND Josh Downs	37	50.4	-27%
Sep 13	IND Keenan Allen	32	48.8	-34%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CIN offense

CIN offense: Share of CIN pass attempts, last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%14.4 yds	3%15.0 yds	7%11.0 yds
Short	32%6.1 yds	19%8.2 yds	34%6.0 yds

Share of CIN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

BAL defense

BAL defense: Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%12.5 yds#9	5%16.1 yds#14	6%15.7 yds#3
Short	31%5.6 yds#17	18%6.3 yds#23	34%5.3 yds#20

Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%13.0 yds	2%33.5 yds	6%11.8 yds
Short	32%6.6 yds	22%8.3 yds	34%5.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Target share · CIN 2026

Each pass-catcher’s share of CIN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tee Higgins WR	5	8.6	43	22.4%
2	Ja'Marr Chase WR	5	7.6	38	22.2%
3	Chase Brown RB	5	5.6	28	14.6%
4	Mitchell Tinsley WR	1	7.0	7	13.2%
5	Mike Gesicki TE	4	4.2	17	11.1%
6	Erick All TE	2	3.0	6	9.7%
7	Dohnte Meyers WR	5	3.6	18	8.6%
8	Andrei Iosivas WR	2	2.0	4	6.0%
9	Drew Sample TE	3	2.0	6	5.8%
10	Samaje Perine RB	5	2.0	10	5.7%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 84.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs JAX	27	Under	83.5	15 (20%)
2026-09-13	1	vs TB	12	Under	85.5	60 (94%)
2026-01-04	18	vs CLE	96	Over	77.5	68 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	vs ARI	60	Under	60.5	59 (77%)
2025-12-14	15	vs BAL	132	Over	93.5	74 (97%)
2025-11-02	9	vs CHI	111	Over	91.5	67 (99%)
2025-10-26	8	vs NYJ	91	Over	85.5	58 (98%)
2025-10-16	7	vs PIT	161	Over	125.5	75 (99%)
2025-10-05	5	vs DET	110	Over	50.5	57 (92%)
2025-09-14	2	vs JAX	165	Over	150.5	66 (96%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 84.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 16m ago.