NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Cooper Kupp WR

SEA vs KC · Sun Oct 25 · 8:20 PM ET

29.5 Rec Yds

Hit rate · Last 10 · Away 50%5/10 Odds imply —

Season avg: 29.8
Graph avg: 33.4
Graph median: 32.06–61
Over the close: 56%5/9

2026 per game

Targets4.2▼-0.7

Rec2.7▼-0.6

Rec Yds29.8▼-9.6

Rec TD0.2+0.0

Snaps45.2▼-3.0

Snap %68.5%▼-7.2

29.5

2025

40

Oct 12
23

Nov 16
24

Nov 23
35

Dec 07
6

Dec 28
29

Jan 03
61

Feb 08
2026

20

Sep 20
46

Sep 27
50

Oct 15
?

Oct 26

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 29.5

Home 68% 13/19 · avg 43.2
Away 55% 11/20 · avg 45.5
vs KC No games

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 19.5 90% 9/10
O 24.5 60% 6/10
O 29.5 Today 50% 5/10
O 34.5 50% 5/10
O 39.5 40% 4/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs KC

What KC allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds112.7#31
Receptions9.5#29
Targets17.4#21
Yds/Target6.5#30
Rec TD0.2#32

WRs vs KC · 2026

Each main WR who faced KC this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-7.1

Avg diff %+3%

Beat their average50% (5/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Ladd McConkey	17	45.8	-63%
Oct 18	Quentin Johnston	57	27.0	+111%
Oct 04	Tre Tucker	44	65.4	-33%
Oct 04	Cody White	36	14.4	+150%
Sep 27	Malik Washington	56	51.5	+9%
Sep 27	Ryan Miller	15	38.5	-61%
Sep 20	Keenan Allen	5	55.5	-91%
Sep 20	Josh Downs	72	43.4	+66%
Sep 14	Jaylen Waddle	2	45.2	-96%
Sep 14	Pat Bryant	42	30.3	+38%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

SEA offense

SEA offense: Share of SEA pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%7.0 yds	4%11.5 yds	7%16.4 yds
Short	32%6.3 yds	16%7.5 yds	36%6.2 yds

Share of SEA pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

KC defense

KC defense: Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%11.7 yds#12	5%14.2 yds#20	5%4.2 yds#31
Short	27%5.0 yds#27	17%6.2 yds#24	37%4.8 yds#28

Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%15.0 yds	2%0.0 yds	4%12.0 yds
Short	28%7.2 yds	24%5.1 yds	35%6.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of SEA targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR	6	11.0	66	35.6%
2	Rashid Shaheed WR	6	4.5	27	14.9%
3	Cooper Kupp WR	6	4.2	25	12.4%
4	AJ Barner TE	6	4.0	24	12.4%
5	Jadarian Price RB	3	2.3	7	7.6%
6	Tory Horton WR	3	3.0	9	7.5%
7	George Holani RB	6	2.0	12	6.5%
8	Emanuel Wilson RB	6	1.3	8	5.6%
9	Elijah Arroyo TE	2	1.0	2	3.8%
10	Brady Russell RB	5	0.6	3	2.1%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 29.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-15	6	@ DEN	50	Over	22.5	72 (85%)
2026-09-27	3	@ WAS	46	Over	19.5	45 (67%)
2026-09-20	2	@ ARI	20	Under	23.5	30 (43%)
2026-02-08	22 (P)	@ NE	61	Over	34.5	56 (78%)
2026-01-03	18	@ SF	29	Under	32.5	53 (77%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CAR	6	Under	10.5	58 (88%)
2025-12-07	14	@ ATL	35	Over	30.5	42 (69%)
2025-11-23	12	@ TEN	24	Under	33.5	37 (77%)
2025-11-16	11	@ LA	23	Under	10.5	68 (81%)
2025-10-12	6	@ JAX	40	Over	—	39 (71%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 29.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 16m ago.