NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Josh Downs WR

IND vs PIT · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

55.5 Rec Yds O -111U -113

Hit rate · Last 10 · Home 20%2/10 Odds imply 49.8% Over

Season avg: 50.5
Graph avg: 44.6
Graph median: 43.03–77
Over the close: 40%4/10

2026 per game

Targets7.0▲+1.5

Rec4.2▲+0.6

Rec Yds50.5▲+15.1

Rec TD0.0▼-0.2

Snaps50.2▲+13.1

Snap %79.2%▲+20.6

2025

51

Sep 14
54

Oct 05
42

Oct 12
39

Oct 26
3

Nov 09
44

Nov 30
65

Dec 22
34

Dec 28
2026

37

Sep 13
77

Sep 27
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 55.5

Home 33% 6/18 · avg 45.5
Away 50% 8/16 · avg 47.0
vs PIT 100% 2/2 · avg 69.5

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 45.5 40% 4/10
O 50.5 40% 4/10
O 55.5 Today 20% 2/10
O 60.5 20% 2/10
O 65.5 10% 1/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs PIT

What PIT allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds154.0#11
Receptions10.4#20
Targets15.9#29
Yds/Target9.7#2
Rec TD0.8#18

WRs vs PIT · 2026

Each main WR who faced PIT this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+3.9

Avg diff %+40%

Beat their average50% (4/8)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 01	Denzel Boston	89	65.0	+37%
Oct 01	KC Concepcion	64	26.7	+140%
Sep 27	Tee Higgins	90	103.7	-13%
Sep 27	Ja'Marr Chase	98	38.0	+158%
Sep 20	Mack Hollins	18	63.7	-72%
Sep 20	Romeo Doubs	96	35.7	+169%
Sep 13	Drake London	29	113.7	-74%
Sep 13	Jahan Dotson	19	25.3	-25%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

IND offense

IND offense: Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.3 yds	5%17.4 yds	5%6.2 yds
Short	30%5.3 yds	18%6.6 yds	35%4.6 yds

Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

PIT defense

PIT defense: Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%21.5 yds#1	4%12.8 yds#22	6%18.4 yds#2
Short	33%5.8 yds#17	22%6.4 yds#20	28%5.5 yds#15

Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	13%9.0 yds	2%18.0 yds	8%6.0 yds
Short	23%4.5 yds	21%7.5 yds	34%7.1 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of IND targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Josh Downs WR	4	7.0	28	22.3%
2	Tyler Warren TE	4	6.8	27	21.6%
3	Keenan Allen WR	3	6.7	20	21.0%
4	Jonathan Taylor RB	4	3.8	15	12.4%
5	Ashton Dulin WR	2	3.5	7	12.1%
6	Alec Pierce WR	2	3.5	7	12.0%
7	Laquon Treadwell WR	4	2.8	11	9.2%
8	Deion Burks WR	2	1.0	2	3.4%
9	Mo Alie-Cox TE	1	1.0	1	2.9%
10	Seth McGowan RB	4	0.8	3	2.6%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 55.5	Close	Snaps
2026-09-27	3	vs HOU	77	Over	50.5	48 (68%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BAL	37	Under	46.5	48 (89%)
2025-12-28	17	vs JAX	34	Under	40.5	35 (61%)
2025-12-22	16	vs SF	65	Over	26.5	47 (78%)
2025-11-30	13	vs HOU	44	Under	32.5	31 (57%)
2025-11-09	10	vs ATL	3	Under	10.5	36 (47%)
2025-10-26	8	vs TEN	39	Under	40.5	34 (64%)
2025-10-12	6	vs ARI	42	Under	40.5	30 (51%)
2025-10-05	5	vs LV	54	Under	54.5	33 (50%)
2025-09-14	2	vs DEN	51	Under	55.5	41 (58%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 58.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 12m ago.