NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

DeMario Douglas WR

NE vs LV · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

25.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 10 · Away 40%4/10 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 20.5
Graph avg: 24.8
Graph median: 18.50–71
Over the close: 30%3/10

2026 per game

Targets4.2▲+1.4

Rec2.2▲+0.3

Rec Yds20.5▼-6.1

Rec TD0.0▼-0.2

Snaps35.5▲+17.6

Snap %53.5%▲+26.4

2025

71

Oct 12
17

Oct 19
34

Nov 09
37

Nov 23
6

Dec 21
10

Dec 28
0

Jan 25
2026

20

Sep 09
38

Sep 27
15

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 25.5

Home 63% 12/19 · avg 34.8
Away 43% 9/21 · avg 27.2
vs LV 0% 0/1 · avg -2.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 15.5 60% 6/10
O 20.5 40% 4/10
O 25.5 Today 40% 4/10
O 30.5 40% 4/10
O 35.5 30% 3/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs LV

What LV allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds136.0#18
Receptions10.4#18
Targets17.0#19
Yds/Target8.0#14
Rec TD0.5#28

WRs vs LV · 2026

Each main WR who faced LV this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+8.3

Avg diff %+46%

Beat their average50% (4/8)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Tyquan Thornton	111	36.0	+208%
Oct 04	Xavier Worthy	70	21.0	+233%
Sep 27	Chris Olave	107	128.0	-16%
Sep 27	Devaughn Vele	39	62.3	-37%
Sep 20	Tre Harris	53	52.0	+2%
Sep 20	Ladd McConkey	35	49.3	-29%
Sep 13	Malik Washington	53	55.3	-4%
Sep 13	Chris Bell	25	22.3	+12%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NE offense

NE offense: Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%10.4 yds	4%10.0 yds	11%11.9 yds
Short	30%6.1 yds	16%7.9 yds	28%6.1 yds

Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LV defense

LV defense: Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%15.4 yds#3	4%11.7 yds#27	6%5.0 yds#31
Short	34%5.7 yds#18	15%6.2 yds#22	32%5.2 yds#22

Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	21%5.4 yds	6%0.0 yds	9%0.0 yds
Short	24%7.5 yds	21%9.3 yds	21%6.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of NE targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Romeo Doubs WR	4	5.0	20	16.8%
2	Mack Hollins WR	4	5.0	20	16.7%
3	DeMario Douglas WR	4	4.2	17	14.3%
4	Hunter Henry TE	4	3.8	15	13.5%
5	Rhamondre Stevenson RB	4	4.0	16	13.2%
6	A.J. Brown WR	1	4.0	4	12.9%
7	Reggie Gilliam RB	1	2.0	2	9.5%
8	Efton Chism III WR	3	2.3	7	7.5%
9	Lan Larison RB	1	2.0	2	6.5%
10	Kyle Williams WR	4	1.8	7	6.3%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 25.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ BUF	15	Under	29.5	35 (46%)
2026-09-27	3	@ JAX	38	Over	28.5	37 (59%)
2026-09-09	1	@ SEA	20	Under	21.5	44 (62%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	@ DEN	0	Under	12.5	12 (19%)
2025-12-28	17	@ NYJ	10	Under	17.5	9 (14%)
2025-12-21	16	@ BAL	6	Under	10.5	13 (18%)
2025-11-23	12	@ CIN	37	Over	20.5	12 (17%)
2025-11-09	10	@ TB	34	Over	35.5	13 (21%)
2025-10-19	7	@ TEN	17	Under	16.5	15 (23%)
2025-10-12	6	@ NO	71	Over	71.5	16 (25%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 24.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 9m ago.