NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Tez Johnson WR

TB vs ATL · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

21.5 Rec Yds O -111U -113

Hit rate · Last 10 · Away 50%5/10 Odds imply 49.8% Over

Season avg: 25.4
Graph avg: 30.2
Graph median: 27.0-1–64
Over the close: 57%4/7

2026 per game

Targets2.1▼-0.8

Rec1.3▼-0.6

Rec Yds25.4▲+4.0

Rec TD0.1▼-0.2

Snaps25.3▼-5.4

Snap %38.4%▼-8.7

21.5

2025

59

Oct 05
58

Oct 20
43

Oct 26
6

Nov 16
21

Nov 23
-1

Dec 21
19

Dec 28
2026

0

Sep 13
64

Oct 08
33

Oct 25
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 21.5

Home 27% 3/11 · avg 18.0
Away 46% 5/11 · avg 27.5
vs ATL 0% 0/2 · avg 0.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 11.5 70% 7/10
O 16.5 70% 7/10
O 21.5 Today 50% 5/10
O 26.5 50% 5/10
O 31.5 50% 5/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs ATL

What ATL allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds152.1#12
Receptions12.4#8
Targets20.1#6
Yds/Target7.6#21
Rec TD0.7#22

WRs vs ATL · 2026

Each main WR who faced ATL this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+4.7

Avg diff %+16%

Beat their average71% (10/14)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Jordan Watkins	56	41.0	+37%
Oct 25	Brandin Cooks	13	6.7	+95%
Oct 18	Luther Burden III	95	66.0	+44%
Oct 18	Rome Odunze	39	57.0	-32%
Oct 11	Zay Flowers	53	111.0	-52%
Oct 11	Rashod Bateman	62	34.0	+82%
Oct 05	Chris Olave	116	86.7	+34%
Oct 05	Devaughn Vele	54	49.0	+10%
Sep 24	Christian Watson	96	83.2	+15%
Sep 24	Matthew Golden	100	73.3	+36%
Sep 20	Tetairoa McMillan	101	82.0	+23%
Sep 20	Jalen Coker	66	65.5	+1%
Sep 13	DK Metcalf	40	55.7	-28%
Sep 13	Roman Wilson	26	40.5	-36%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TB offense

TB offense: Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%9.9 yds	4%13.4 yds	6%8.5 yds
Short	34%5.1 yds	14%7.2 yds	36%5.3 yds

Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ATL defense

ATL defense: Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.6 yds#27	3%19.0 yds#4	8%9.4 yds#22
Short	32%6.4 yds#8	14%6.6 yds#22	33%5.3 yds#19

Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%0.0 yds	5%49.0 yds	32%19.5 yds
Short	37%2.1 yds	0%	21%8.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of TB targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Emeka Egbuka WR	6	8.2	49	25.6%
2	Chris Godwin Jr. WR	7	4.9	34	19.9%
3	Cade Otton TE	7	4.3	30	15.3%
4	Ted Hurst III WR	6	3.8	23	12.7%
5	Bucky Irving RB	7	3.3	23	12.4%
6	Tez Johnson WR	7	2.1	15	8.4%
7	Kenny Gainwell RB	7	2.4	17	8.0%
8	Payne Durham TE	2	1.0	2	3.4%
9	Jalen McMillan WR	1	1.0	1	2.9%
10	Kameron Johnson WR	7	0.3	2	1.1%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 21.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-25	7	@ CAR	33	Over	28.5	41 (65%)
2026-10-08	5	@ DAL	64	Over	12.5	28 (39%)
2026-09-13	1	@ CIN	0	Under	14.5	13 (23%)
2025-12-28	17	@ MIA	19	Under	0.5	11 (16%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CAR	-1	Under	—	16 (25%)
2025-11-23	12	@ LA	21	Under	30.5	60 (86%)
2025-11-16	11	@ BUF	6	Under	32.5	58 (83%)
2025-10-26	8	@ NO	43	Over	42.5	41 (71%)
2025-10-20	7	@ DET	58	Over	—	47 (68%)
2025-10-05	5	@ SEA	59	Over	—	22 (36%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 21.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 6m ago.