NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Jared Goff QB

DET vs GB · Sun Oct 25 · 4:25 PM ET

24.5 Completions

Hit rate · Last 10 80%8/10 Odds imply —

Season avg: 25.6
Graph avg: 25.7
Graph median: 25.518–34
Over the close: 60%6/10

2026 per game

Pass Yds297.0▲+28.5

Att38.2▲+4.2

Cmp%67.0%▼-1.0

Pass TD2.4▲+0.4

INT0.0▼-0.5

Rush Yds3.2▲+0.6

Snaps68.2▲+4.5

Snap %99.0%▲+0.5

24.5

2025

25

Dec 04
25

Dec 14
34

Dec 21
18

Dec 25
27

Jan 04
2026

26

Sep 13
26

Sep 17
25

Sep 27
32

Oct 04
19

Oct 11
?

Oct 25

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 24.5

Home 50% 10/20 · avg 24.4
Away 40% 8/20 · avg 22.2
vs GB 50% 2/4 · avg 25.2

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 22.5 80% 8/10
O 23.5 80% 8/10
O 24.5 Today 80% 8/10
O 25.5 50% 5/10
O 26.5 30% 3/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs GB

What GB allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds221.2#21
Yds/Att6.4#27
Cmp%62.8%#20
Pass TD1.2#23
Pass Att34.4#9

QBs vs GB · 2026

Each main QB who faced GB this season: completions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.0

Avg diff %+2%

Beat their average67% (4/6)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Dak Prescott	34	25.8	+32%
Oct 11	Tyson Bagent	12	15.0	-20%
Oct 04	Jalon Daniels	19	13.7	+39%
Sep 24	Michael Penix Jr.	18	17.7	+2%
Sep 20	Geno Smith	27	19.0	+42%
Sep 13	Kyler Murray	3	22.0	-86%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DET offense

DET offense: Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%15.4 yds	6%13.8 yds	6%14.0 yds
Short	30%5.1 yds	25%8.5 yds	29%6.0 yds

Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

GB defense

GB defense: Throws GB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%13.8 yds#6	4%10.1 yds#32	7%5.3 yds#29
Short	25%5.1 yds#26	21%6.0 yds#26	35%5.8 yds#11

Throws GB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%15.4 yds	6%13.8 yds	6%14.0 yds
Short	30%5.1 yds	25%8.5 yds	29%6.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of DET targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Amon-Ra St. Brown WR	5	11.4	57	31.1%
2	Sam LaPorta TE	5	7.4	37	18.9%
3	Jahmyr Gibbs RB	5	6.8	34	18.8%
4	Jameson Williams WR	5	5.8	29	15.2%
5	Isaac TeSlaa WR	5	3.8	19	9.6%
6	Brock Wright TE	5	1.2	6	3.3%
7	Jackson Meeks WR	1	1.0	1	3.2%
8	Sione Vaki RB	5	1.0	5	2.5%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Completions	vs 24.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ ARI	19	Under	24.5	63 (95%)
2026-10-04	4	@ CAR	32	Over	22.5	71 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs NYJ	25	Over	23.5	65 (100%)
2026-09-17	2	@ BUF	26	Over	24.5	65 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs NO	26	Over	22.5	77 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	@ CHI	27	Over	28.5	73 (100%)
2025-12-25	17	@ MIN	18	Under	21.5	64 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	vs PIT	34	Over	22.5	74 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	@ LA	25	Over	23.5	64 (100%)
2025-12-04	14	vs DAL	25	Over	25.5	62 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 24.5Underdog 24.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Underdog, updated 9m ago.