NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Jared Goff QB

DET vs GB · Sun Oct 25 · 4:25 PM ET

37.5 Pass Att

Hit rate · Last 10 · Away 40%4/10 Odds imply —

Season avg: 38.2
Graph avg: 35.4
Graph median: 35.023–52
Over the close: 40%4/10

2026 per game

Pass Yds297.0▲+28.5

Att38.2▲+4.2

Cmp%67.0%▼-1.0

Pass TD2.4▲+0.4

INT0.0▼-0.5

Rush Yds3.2▲+0.6

Snaps68.2▲+4.5

Snap %99.0%▲+0.5

37.5

2025

23

Oct 05
29

Oct 12
33

Nov 09
37

Nov 16
41

Dec 14
29

Dec 25
42

Jan 04
2026

38

Sep 17
52

Oct 04
30

Oct 11
?

Oct 25

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 37.5

Home 35% 7/20 · avg 35.0
Away 25% 5/20 · avg 32.4
vs GB 50% 2/4 · avg 32.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 35.5 50% 5/10
O 36.5 50% 5/10
O 37.5 Today 40% 4/10
O 38.5 30% 3/10
O 39.5 30% 3/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs GB

What GB allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds221.2#21
Yds/Att6.4#27
Cmp%62.8%#20
Pass TD1.2#23
Pass Att34.4#9

QBs vs GB · 2026

Each main QB who faced GB this season: pass att in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.3

Avg diff %+1%

Beat their average50% (3/6)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Dak Prescott	54	38.4	+41%
Oct 11	Tyson Bagent	21	21.5	-2%
Oct 04	Jalon Daniels	27	23.7	+14%
Sep 24	Michael Penix Jr.	25	28.3	-12%
Sep 20	Geno Smith	41	27.2	+51%
Sep 13	Kyler Murray	5	32.0	-84%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DET offense

DET offense: Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%15.4 yds	6%13.8 yds	6%14.0 yds
Short	30%5.1 yds	25%8.5 yds	29%6.0 yds

Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

GB defense

GB defense: Throws GB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%13.8 yds#6	4%10.1 yds#32	7%5.3 yds#29
Short	25%5.1 yds#26	21%6.0 yds#26	35%5.8 yds#11

Throws GB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%15.4 yds	6%13.8 yds	6%14.0 yds
Short	30%5.1 yds	25%8.5 yds	29%6.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of DET targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Amon-Ra St. Brown WR	5	11.4	57	31.1%
2	Sam LaPorta TE	5	7.4	37	18.9%
3	Jahmyr Gibbs RB	5	6.8	34	18.8%
4	Jameson Williams WR	5	5.8	29	15.2%
5	Isaac TeSlaa WR	5	3.8	19	9.6%
6	Brock Wright TE	5	1.2	6	3.3%
7	Jackson Meeks WR	1	1.0	1	3.2%
8	Sione Vaki RB	5	1.0	5	2.5%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Att	vs 37.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ ARI	30	Under	34.5	63 (95%)
2026-10-04	4	@ CAR	52	Over	33.5	71 (100%)
2026-09-17	2	@ BUF	38	Over	36.5	65 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	@ CHI	42	Over	39.5	73 (100%)
2025-12-25	17	@ MIN	29	Under	32.5	64 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	@ LA	41	Over	33.5	64 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	@ PHI	37	Under	37.5	59 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	@ WAS	33	Under	36.5	61 (87%)
2025-10-12	6	@ KC	29	Under	32.5	54 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	@ CIN	23	Under	31.5	62 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 37.5Underdog 37.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 5m ago.