NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Lamar Jackson QB

BAL vs BUF · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

30.5 Pass Att O -114U -112

Hit rate · Last 10 · Home 40%4/10 Odds imply 50.2% Over

Season avg: 24.0
Graph avg: 26.0
Graph median: 28.010–35
Over the close: 50%4/8

2026 per game

Pass Yds241.8▲+45.7

Att24.0▲+0.8

Cmp%70.8%▲+7.3

Pass TD1.5▼-0.1

INT0.2▼-0.3

Rush Yds36.0▲+9.2

Snaps55.8▲+1.8

Snap %88.0%▼-4.2

30.5

2024

32

Jan 04
21

Jan 11
2025

29

Sep 14
27

Sep 22
23

Nov 23
32

Nov 27
35

Dec 07
10

Dec 21
2026

31

Sep 20
20

Oct 04
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 30.5

Home 41% 7/17 · avg 26.4
Away 21% 4/19 · avg 24.7
vs BUF 0% 0/3 · avg 20.7

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 28.5 50% 5/10
O 29.5 40% 4/10
O 30.5 Today 40% 4/10
O 31.5 30% 3/10
O 32.5 10% 1/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs BUF

What BUF allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds244.8#10
Yds/Att6.7#21
Cmp%61.3%#26
Pass TD2.3#2
Pass Att36.7#4

QBs vs BUF · 2026

Each main QB who faced BUF this season: pass att in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+6.4

Avg diff %+19%

Beat their average100% (6/6)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Kirk Cousins	41	36.0	+14%
Oct 12	Matthew Stafford	54	37.3	+45%
Oct 04	Drake Maye	37	29.5	+25%
Sep 27	Justin Herbert	34	29.2	+16%
Sep 17	Jared Goff	38	37.0	+3%
Sep 13	C.J. Stroud	38	34.8	+9%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BAL offense

BAL offense: Share of BAL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%18.2 yds	5%8.2 yds	5%11.9 yds
Short	25%7.7 yds	23%8.9 yds	34%6.2 yds

Share of BAL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

BUF defense

BUF defense: Throws BUF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%11.3 yds#12	5%12.4 yds#24	9%9.2 yds#24
Short	31%5.4 yds#24	17%6.4 yds#28	32%5.5 yds#15

Throws BUF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	11%19.1 yds	4%11.0 yds	9%11.5 yds
Short	24%7.2 yds	27%10.4 yds	26%5.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of BAL targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Zay Flowers WR	6	8.8	53	31.1%
2	Mark Andrews TE	7	5.3	37	19.4%
3	Ja'Kobi Lane WR	3	4.3	13	14.4%
4	Rashod Bateman WR	7	3.7	26	13.1%
5	Justice Hill RB	7	2.4	17	8.0%
6	Chris Moore WR	3	2.0	6	7.9%
7	Josh Cuevas TE	5	2.2	11	7.3%
8	Elijah Sarratt WR	1	2.0	2	6.9%
9	Devontez Walker WR	5	1.8	9	6.3%
10	Derrick Henry RB	7	1.7	12	6.0%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Att	vs 30.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs TEN	20	Under	26.5	33 (52%)
2026-09-20	2	vs NO	31	Over	27.5	58 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	vs NE	10	Under	24.5	26 (47%)
2025-12-07	14	vs PIT	35	Over	25.5	80 (100%)
2025-11-27	13	vs CIN	32	Over	29.5	60 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NYJ	23	Under	22.5	63 (100%)
2025-09-22	3	vs DET	27	Under	28.5	57 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CLE	29	Under	29.5	53 (95%)
2025-01-11	19 (P)	vs PIT	21	Under	—	74 (100%)
2025-01-04	18	vs CLE	32	Over	—	67 (96%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 30.5Underdog 30.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 10m ago.