NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Baker Mayfield QB

TB vs ATL · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

30.5 Pass Att O +100U -128

Hit rate · Last 10 40%4/10 Odds imply 47.1% Over

Season avg: 26.8
Graph avg: 29.1
Graph median: 29.011–44
Over the close: 60%6/10

2026 per game

Pass Yds169.8▼-47.5

Att26.8▼-5.2

Cmp%63.6%▲+0.4

Pass TD0.8▼-0.8

INT0.5▼-0.1

Rush Yds16.5▼-6.0

Snaps61.0▼-3.6

Snap %96.0%▼-1.1

30.5

2025

28

Nov 30
30

Dec 07
34

Dec 11
26

Dec 21
44

Dec 28
22

Jan 03
2026

28

Sep 13
34

Sep 20
34

Sep 27
11

Oct 25
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 30.5

Home 55% 11/20 · avg 33.1
Away 47% 9/19 · avg 30.3
vs ATL 75% 3/4 · avg 35.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 28.5 50% 5/10
O 29.5 50% 5/10
O 30.5 Today 40% 4/10
O 31.5 40% 4/10
O 32.5 40% 4/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs ATL

What ATL allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds263.1#2
Yds/Att6.8#19
Cmp%63.5%#17
Pass TD1.5#14
Pass Att38.9#1

QBs vs ATL · 2026

Each main QB who faced ATL this season: pass att in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+7.6

Avg diff %+24%

Beat their average86% (6/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Brock Purdy	40	28.5	+40%
Oct 18	Caleb Williams	36	29.3	+23%
Oct 11	Tyler Huntley	32	24.7	+30%
Oct 05	Tyler Shough	48	37.5	+28%
Sep 24	Jordan Love	53	36.3	+46%
Sep 20	Bryce Young	36	38.4	-6%
Sep 13	Aaron Rodgers	40	37.2	+8%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TB offense

TB offense: Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%9.9 yds	4%13.4 yds	6%8.5 yds
Short	34%5.1 yds	14%7.2 yds	36%5.3 yds

Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ATL defense

ATL defense: Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.6 yds#27	3%19.0 yds#4	8%9.4 yds#22
Short	32%6.4 yds#8	14%6.6 yds#22	33%5.3 yds#19

Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.8 yds	5%11.9 yds	8%7.9 yds
Short	32%5.5 yds	15%6.9 yds	32%6.1 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of TB targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Emeka Egbuka WR	6	8.2	49	25.6%
2	Chris Godwin Jr. WR	7	4.9	34	19.9%
3	Cade Otton TE	7	4.3	30	15.3%
4	Ted Hurst III WR	6	3.8	23	12.7%
5	Bucky Irving RB	7	3.3	23	12.4%
6	Tez Johnson WR	7	2.1	15	8.4%
7	Kenny Gainwell RB	7	2.4	17	8.0%
8	Payne Durham TE	2	1.0	2	3.4%
9	Jalen McMillan WR	1	1.0	1	2.9%
10	Kameron Johnson WR	7	0.3	2	1.1%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Att	vs 30.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-25	7	@ CAR	11	Under	33.5	57 (90%)
2026-09-27	3	vs MIN	34	Over	30.5	65 (94%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CLE	34	Over	28.5	65 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	@ CIN	28	Under	31.5	57 (100%)
2026-01-03	18	vs CAR	22	Under	29.5	67 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	@ MIA	44	Over	31.5	67 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CAR	26	Under	25.5	64 (100%)
2025-12-11	15	vs ATL	34	Over	31.5	69 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	vs NO	30	Under	29.5	74 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	vs ARI	28	Under	28.5	61 (100%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 30.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 15m ago.