NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Baker Mayfield QB

TB vs ATL · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

216.5 Pass Yds O -112U -112

Hit rate · Last 10 · Home 60%6/10 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 169.8
Graph avg: 224.6
Graph median: 225.0122–289
Over the close: 60%6/10

2026 per game

Pass Yds169.8▼-47.5

Att26.8▼-5.2

Cmp%63.6%▲+0.4

Pass TD0.8▼-0.8

INT0.5▼-0.1

Rush Yds16.5▼-6.0

Snaps61.0▼-3.6

Snap %96.0%▼-1.1

216.5

2025

233

Sep 21
289

Sep 28
256

Oct 12
273

Nov 09
194

Nov 30
122

Dec 07
277

Dec 11
203

Jan 03
2026

182

Sep 20
217

Sep 27
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 216.5

Home 65% 13/20 · avg 246.1
Away 42% 8/19 · avg 217.7
vs ATL 50% 2/4 · avg 238.5

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 196.5 70% 7/10
O 206.5 60% 6/10
O 216.5 Today 60% 6/10
O 226.5 50% 5/10
O 236.5 40% 4/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs ATL

What ATL allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds263.1#2
Yds/Att6.8#19
Cmp%63.5%#17
Pass TD1.5#14
Pass Att38.9#1

QBs vs ATL · 2026

Each main QB who faced ATL this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+28.3

Avg diff %+12%

Beat their average86% (6/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Brock Purdy	288	243.3	+18%
Oct 18	Caleb Williams	305	238.3	+28%
Oct 11	Tyler Huntley	201	175.3	+15%
Oct 05	Tyler Shough	286	239.2	+20%
Sep 24	Jordan Love	312	274.3	+14%
Sep 20	Bryce Young	287	285.0	+1%
Sep 13	Aaron Rodgers	221	246.3	-10%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TB offense

TB offense: Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%9.9 yds	4%13.4 yds	6%8.5 yds
Short	34%5.1 yds	14%7.2 yds	36%5.3 yds

Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ATL defense

ATL defense: Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.6 yds#27	3%19.0 yds#4	8%9.4 yds#22
Short	32%6.4 yds#8	14%6.6 yds#22	33%5.3 yds#19

Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.8 yds	5%11.9 yds	8%7.9 yds
Short	32%5.5 yds	15%6.9 yds	32%6.1 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of TB targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Emeka Egbuka WR	6	8.2	49	25.6%
2	Chris Godwin Jr. WR	7	4.9	34	19.9%
3	Cade Otton TE	7	4.3	30	15.3%
4	Ted Hurst III WR	6	3.8	23	12.7%
5	Bucky Irving RB	7	3.3	23	12.4%
6	Tez Johnson WR	7	2.1	15	8.4%
7	Kenny Gainwell RB	7	2.4	17	8.0%
8	Payne Durham TE	2	1.0	2	3.4%
9	Jalen McMillan WR	1	1.0	1	2.9%
10	Kameron Johnson WR	7	0.3	2	1.1%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 216.5	Close	Snaps
2026-09-27	3	vs MIN	217	Over	216.5	65 (94%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CLE	182	Under	215.5	65 (100%)
2026-01-03	18	vs CAR	203	Under	180.5	67 (100%)
2025-12-11	15	vs ATL	277	Over	279.5	69 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	vs NO	122	Under	219.5	74 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	vs ARI	194	Under	214.5	61 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	vs NE	273	Over	241.5	69 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	vs SF	256	Over	240.5	53 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs PHI	289	Over	215.5	72 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	vs NYJ	233	Over	185.5	72 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 216.5Underdog 224.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 18m ago.