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Game logs through Oct 8, 2026 · 171 players

Justin Herbert QB

LAC vs DEN ·

1.5 Pass TDs O +176U -227
Hit rate · Last 10 20%2/10 Odds imply 34.3% Over
Season avg
1.0
Graph avg
1.1
Graph median
1.00–2
Over the close
10%1/10
2026 per game
Pass Yds204.0â–¼-24.6
Att29.8â–¼-2.2
Cmp%59.7%â–¼-6.5
Pass TD1.0â–¼-0.5
INT1.5â–²+0.7
Rush Yds22.0â–¼-10.6
Snaps65.8â–²+0.9
Snap %100.0%â–²+3.0
Justin Herbert passing tds by game, oldest to newest, against today’s line of 1.5.
  1. 2025
    2
  2. 1
  3. 1
  4. 2
  5. 1
  6. 0
  7. 2026
    1
  8. 1
  9. 1
  10. 1
  11. ?

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 1.5

  • Home 42% 8/19 · avg 1.5
  • Away 40% 8/20 · avg 1.2
  • vs DEN 33% 1/3 · avg 1.3

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

  • O 0.5 90% 9/10
  • O 1.5 Today 20% 2/10
  • O 2.5 0% 0/10
  • O 3.5 0% 0/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs DEN

What DEN allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass YdsYds/AttCmp%Pass TDPass Att
  • Pass Yds210.7#24
  • Yds/Att6.1#31
  • Cmp%57.1%#31
  • Pass TD1.4#18
  • Pass Att34.3#6

QBs vs DEN · 2026

Each main QB who faced DEN this season: pass tds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.8
Avg diff %-24%
Beat their average25% (1/4)
DatePlayerResultTheir avgDiff
Oct 04 Brock Purdy23.0-33%
Sep 27 Matthew Stafford21.3+50%
Sep 20 Trevor Lawrence02.7-100%
Sep 14 Patrick Mahomes22.3-14%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LAC offense

LAC offense: Share of LAC pass attempts, last 10 games
DepthLeftMiddleRight
Deep10%12.9 yds2%13.6 yds9%6.5 yds
Short29%6.6 yds14%5.4 yds37%4.8 yds

Share of LAC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

DEN defense

DEN defense: Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
DepthLeftMiddleRight
Deep10%4.4 yds#314%8.4 yds#328%7.7 yds#28
Short29%7.6 yds#213%6.6 yds#1836%5.1 yds#23

Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
DepthLeftMiddleRight
Deep10%14.3 yds2%13.6 yds9%7.0 yds
Short28%7.3 yds15%5.3 yds36%5.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Target share · LAC 2026

Each pass-catcher’s share of LAC targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#PlayerGPTgt/gTotalShare
1Tre Harris WR45.22117.8%
2Quentin Johnston WR44.81916.5%
3David Njoku TE24.0815.0%
4Ladd McConkey WR44.21714.8%
5Oronde Gadsden II TE43.81512.5%
6Brenen Thompson WR13.0311.5%
7Keaton Mitchell RB42.5108.1%
8Kimani Vidal RB32.066.3%
9Charlie Kolar TE21.535.8%
10Omarion Hampton RB41.254.3%

Game log · 10 games

DateWkOppPass TDsvs 1.5CloseSnaps
2026-10-044@ SEA1Under0.571 (100%)
2026-09-273@ BUF1Under1.569 (100%)
2026-09-202vs LV1Under1.568 (100%)
2026-09-131vs ARI1Under1.555 (100%)
2026-01-1119 (P)@ NE0Under0.560 (100%)
2025-12-2717vs HOU1Under1.563 (100%)
2025-12-2116@ DAL2Over2.564 (100%)
2025-12-1415@ KC1Under1.566 (100%)
2025-12-0814vs PHI1Under1.574 (100%)
2025-11-3013vs LV2Over2.557 (85%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 0.5PrizePicks 1

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 9m ago.