NBA Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Aaron Nesmith

Pacers vs Pelicans · Wed Oct 21 · 8:00 PM ET

2.5 3PM O +122U -160

Hit rate · Last 10 · Home 40%4/10 Odds imply 42.3% Over

Season avg: —
Graph avg: 2.1
Graph median: 2.00.0–4.0

2026-27 per game

Pts—

Reb—

Ast—

3PM—

Stl—

Blk—

Aaron Nesmith 3-pointers made by game, oldest to newest, against today’s line of 2.5.

Splits all logged games · over 2.5

Home 37% 7/19 · avg 2.2
Away 50% 13/26 · avg 2.5
vs Pelicans 0% 0/1 · avg 2.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 90% 9/10
O 1.5 70% 7/10
O 2.5 Today 40% 4/10
O 3.5 10% 1/10
O 4.5 0% 0/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Game log · 10 games

Date	Opp	3PM	vs 2.5	Close
2026-03-27	vs Clippers	4	Over	—
2026-03-25	vs Lakers	2	Under	—
2026-03-18	vs Trail Blazers	1	Under	—
2026-03-13	vs Knicks	1	Under	—
2026-02-02	vs Rockets	3	Over	—
2026-01-31	vs Hawks	3	Over	—
2026-01-28	vs Bulls	3	Over	—
2026-01-16	vs Pelicans	2	Under	—
2026-01-14	vs Raptors	0	Under	—
2026-01-12	vs Celtics	2	Under	—

Pick’em lines: Underdog 2.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: SportsGameOdds box scores. Lines: DraftKings, updated 2m ago.