NBA Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Pelle Larsson G

Heat vs Timberwolves · Wed Oct 21 · 7:30 PM ET

3.5 Reb O +114U -150

Hit rate · Last 10 · Home 40%4/10 Odds imply 43.8% Over

Season avg: —
Graph avg: 4.1
Graph median: 3.01.0–10.0

2026-27 per game

Pts—

Reb—

Ast—

3PM—

Stl—

Blk—

Pelle Larsson rebounds by game, oldest to newest, against today’s line of 3.5.

Splits all logged games · over 3.5

Home 40% 14/35 · avg 3.5
Away 43% 15/35 · avg 3.5
vs Timberwolves 0% 0/1 · avg 2.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 80% 8/10
O 2.5 60% 6/10
O 3.5 Today 40% 4/10
O 4.5 40% 4/10
O 5.5 40% 4/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · Guards vs Timberwolves

What Timberwolves allowed to Guards per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 30 defenses.

Pts58.9#1
Ast14.1#7
3PM5.2#22
Reb17.5#2

Game log · 10 games

Date	Opp	Reb	vs 3.5	Close
2026-04-04	vs Wizards	7	Over	—
2026-04-01	vs Celtics	3	Under	—
2026-03-30	vs 76ers	10	Over	—
2026-03-23	vs Spurs	1	Under	—
2026-03-19	vs Lakers	2	Under	—
2026-03-14	vs Magic	3	Under	—
2026-03-12	vs Bucks	6	Over	—
2026-03-10	vs Wizards	2	Under	—
2026-03-08	vs Pistons	6	Over	—
2026-03-05	vs Nets	1	Under	—

Pick’em lines: Underdog 3.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: SportsGameOdds box scores. Lines: DraftKings, updated 4m ago.