NBA Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Pelle Larsson G

Heat vs Timberwolves · Wed Oct 21 · 7:30 PM ET

14.5 Pts+Reb O -121U -108

Hit rate · Last 10 · Away 60%6/10 Odds imply 51.3% Over

Season avg: —
Graph avg: 16.4
Graph median: 16.09.0–24.0

2026-27 per game

Pts—

Reb—

Ast—

3PM—

Stl—

Blk—

Pelle Larsson pts + reb by game, oldest to newest, against today’s line of 14.5.

Splits all logged games · over 14.5

Home 57% 20/35 · avg 15.9
Away 49% 17/35 · avg 14.1
vs Timberwolves 0% 0/1 · avg 9.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 12.5 80% 8/10
O 13.5 70% 7/10
O 14.5 Today 60% 6/10
O 15.5 50% 5/10
O 16.5 50% 5/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · Guards vs Timberwolves

What Timberwolves allowed to Guards per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 30 defenses.

Pts58.9#1
Ast14.1#7
3PM5.2#22
Reb17.5#2

Game log · 10 games

Date	Opp	Pts+Reb	vs 14.5	Close
2026-04-14	@ Hornets	9	Under	—
2026-04-10	@ Wizards	24	Over	—
2026-04-09	@ Raptors	14	Under	—
2026-04-07	@ Raptors	10	Under	—
2026-03-29	@ Pacers	20	Over	—
2026-03-27	@ Cavaliers	13	Under	—
2026-03-25	@ Cavaliers	18	Over	—
2026-03-21	@ Rockets	24	Over	—
2026-03-17	@ Hornets	17	Over	—
2026-03-06	@ Hornets	15	Over	—

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 14.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: SportsGameOdds box scores. Lines: DraftKings, updated 3m ago.