NBA Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Pelle Larsson G

Heat vs Timberwolves · Wed Oct 21 · 7:30 PM ET

14.5 Pts+Ast O -120U -109

Hit rate · Last 10 · Home 70%7/10 Odds imply 51.1% Over

Season avg: —
Graph avg: 19.0
Graph median: 19.010.0–34.0

2026-27 per game

Pts—

Reb—

Ast—

3PM—

Stl—

Blk—

Pelle Larsson pts + ast by game, oldest to newest, against today’s line of 14.5.

Splits all logged games · over 14.5

Home 54% 19/35 · avg 16.0
Away 43% 15/35 · avg 13.8
vs Timberwolves 0% 0/1 · avg 8.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 12.5 80% 8/10
O 13.5 80% 8/10
O 14.5 Today 70% 7/10
O 15.5 70% 7/10
O 16.5 60% 6/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · Guards vs Timberwolves

What Timberwolves allowed to Guards per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 30 defenses.

Pts58.9#1
Ast14.1#7
3PM5.2#22
Reb17.5#2

Game log · 10 games

Date	Opp	Pts+Ast	vs 14.5	Close
2026-04-04	vs Wizards	20	Over	—
2026-04-01	vs Celtics	24	Over	—
2026-03-30	vs 76ers	23	Over	—
2026-03-23	vs Spurs	10	Under	—
2026-03-19	vs Lakers	16	Over	—
2026-03-14	vs Magic	18	Over	—
2026-03-12	vs Bucks	34	Over	—
2026-03-10	vs Wizards	11	Under	—
2026-03-08	vs Pistons	14	Under	—
2026-03-05	vs Nets	20	Over	—

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 14.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: SportsGameOdds box scores. Lines: DraftKings, updated 3m ago.