NBA Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Pelle Larsson

Heat vs Timberwolves · Wed Oct 21 · 7:30 PM ET

14.5 Pts+Ast O -120U -109

Hit rate · Last 10 · Away 50%5/10 Odds imply 51.1% Over

Season avg: —
Graph avg: 15.7
Graph median: 14.58.0–30.0

2026-27 per game

Pts—

Reb—

Ast—

3PM—

Stl—

Blk—

Pelle Larsson pts + ast by game, oldest to newest, against today’s line of 14.5.

Splits all logged games · over 14.5

Home 54% 19/35 · avg 16.0
Away 43% 15/35 · avg 13.8
vs Timberwolves 0% 0/1 · avg 8.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 12.5 70% 7/10
O 13.5 60% 6/10
O 14.5 Today 50% 5/10
O 15.5 40% 4/10
O 16.5 30% 3/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Game log · 10 games

Date	Opp	Pts+Ast	vs 14.5	Close
2026-04-14	@ Hornets	9	Under	—
2026-04-10	@ Wizards	30	Over	—
2026-04-09	@ Raptors	12	Under	—
2026-04-07	@ Raptors	8	Under	—
2026-03-29	@ Pacers	18	Over	—
2026-03-27	@ Cavaliers	15	Over	—
2026-03-25	@ Cavaliers	16	Over	—
2026-03-21	@ Rockets	22	Over	—
2026-03-17	@ Hornets	14	Under	—
2026-03-06	@ Hornets	13	Under	—

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 14.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: SportsGameOdds box scores. Lines: DraftKings, updated 4m ago.