NBA Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

LaMelo Ball

Timberwolves vs Heat · Wed Oct 21 · 7:30 PM ET

28.5 Pts+Ast O -109U -121

Hit rate · Last 10 · vs Heat 75%3/4 Odds imply 48.8% Over

Season avg: —
Graph avg: 34.5
Graph median: 34.526.0–43.0

2026-27 per game

Pts—

Reb—

Ast—

3PM—

Stl—

Blk—

LaMelo Ball pts + ast by game, oldest to newest, against today’s line of 28.5.

Splits all logged games · over 28.5

Home 36% 13/36 · avg 27.3
Away 32% 12/38 · avg 27.4
vs Heat 75% 3/4 · avg 34.5

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 24.5 100% 4/4
O 26.5 75% 3/4
O 28.5 Today 75% 3/4
O 30.5 50% 2/4
O 32.5 50% 2/4

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Game log · 4 games

Date	Opp	Pts+Ast	vs 28.5	Close
2026-04-14	vs Heat	40	Over	—
2026-03-17	vs Heat	43	Over	—
2026-03-06	vs Heat	26	Under	—
2025-10-28	@ Heat	29	Over	—

Pick’em lines: Underdog 28.5PrizePicks 28.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: SportsGameOdds box scores. Lines: DraftKings, updated 2m ago.