NBA Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Pelle Larsson

Heat vs Timberwolves · Wed Oct 21 · 7:30 PM ET

11.5 Pts O -107U -120

Hit rate · Last 10 · Home 60%6/10 Odds imply 48.7% Over

Season avg: —
Graph avg: 15.1
Graph median: 15.57.0–28.0

2026-27 per game

Pts—

Reb—

Ast—

3PM—

Stl—

Blk—

Pelle Larsson points by game, oldest to newest, against today’s line of 11.5.

Splits all logged games · over 11.5

Home 49% 17/35 · avg 12.5
Away 40% 14/35 · avg 10.6
vs Timberwolves 0% 0/1 · avg 7.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 9.5 90% 9/10
O 10.5 70% 7/10
O 11.5 Today 60% 6/10
O 12.5 60% 6/10
O 13.5 60% 6/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Game log · 10 games

Date	Opp	Pts	vs 11.5	Close
2026-04-04	vs Wizards	16	Over	—
2026-04-01	vs Celtics	18	Over	—
2026-03-30	vs 76ers	20	Over	—
2026-03-23	vs Spurs	7	Under	—
2026-03-19	vs Lakers	11	Under	—
2026-03-14	vs Magic	15	Over	—
2026-03-12	vs Bucks	28	Over	—
2026-03-10	vs Wizards	10	Under	—
2026-03-08	vs Pistons	10	Under	—
2026-03-05	vs Nets	16	Over	—

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 11.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: SportsGameOdds box scores. Lines: DraftKings, updated 3m ago.