CFB Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Tim Burns WR

Sam Houston vs New Mexico State · Wed Oct 21 · 8:00 PM ET

2.5 Receptions O -132U —

Hit rate · Last 10 · vs New Mexico State 0%0/1 Odds imply —

Season avg: 2.2
Graph avg: 1.0
Graph median: 1.01–1

2026 per game

Rec2.2▲+0.7

Rec Yds42.4▲+13.9

Rec TD0.4▲+0.3

2.5

2025

1

Oct 02
?

Oct 22

Splits all logged games · over 2.5

Home 29% 2/7 · avg 1.7
Away 17% 1/6 · avg 1.8
vs New Mexico State 0% 0/1 · avg 1.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 100% 1/1
O 1.5 0% 0/1
O 2.5 Today 0% 0/1
O 3.5 0% 0/1
O 4.5 0% 0/1

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · receivers vs New Mexico State

What New Mexico State allowed to receivers per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 185 defenses.

Rec Yds208.2#77
Receptions17.2#41
Yds/Rec12.1#134
Rec TD1.4#100

WRs vs New Mexico State · 2026

Each main WR who faced New Mexico State this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+1.1

Avg diff %+33%

Beat their average60% (6/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 07	Maguire Anderson	1	6.4	-84%
Oct 07	Kyle Mcneal	2	4.0	-50%
Oct 01	Jonathan Stafford Jr.	10	5.2	+94%
Oct 01	Lofton Howard	3	2.4	+25%
Sep 26	Bailen George	3	2.2	+33%
Sep 26	Troy Omeire	2	2.0	+0%
Sep 12	Tama Uiliata	10	4.0	+150%
Sep 12	Kainoa Carvalho	9	3.8	+135%
Aug 29	Duce Robinson	3	3.2	-5%
Aug 29	Micahi Danzy	4	3.0	+33%

Game log · 1 game

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 2.5	Close
2025-10-02	6	@ New Mexico State	1	Under	—

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 2.5Underdog 3.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: CollegeFootballData box scores. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 20m ago.