The top-ranked PrizePicks NFL KarmaCard on Saturday afternoon is Ja'Marr Chase receiving yards for the Bengals against the Falcons. On a PrizePicks line of 76.5, the KarmaEdge AI projects 91.8 yards, a difference of +15.3, with a KarmaEdge AI Score of 99 (five stars). The line was read at 3:02 PM ET on Saturday, Nov 7, 2026.
Kickoff is Sunday, Nov 8 at 9:30 AM ET at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium in Madrid, with Atlanta the designated home team. When we checked, this card sat first among 357 PrizePicks NFL cards sorted by AI Score, tied at 99 with Chase's receptions card. That ranking covers one platform at one moment. The AI Score is a research score, not a win probability or a betting instruction.
The KarmaCard
| Item | Value (Sat 3:02 PM ET) |
|---|---|
| Player | Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals |
| Market | Receiving yards |
| PrizePicks line | 76.5 |
| KarmaEdge AI projection | 91.8 |
| Difference | +15.3 |
| KarmaEdge AI Score | 99 (five stars) |
This is today's free card, so you can see the projection with a free account on the PrizePicks NFL page or in NFL KarmaCards. The rest of the PrizePicks list, including Chase's receptions card at a line of 7, is part of Elite.
Platform lines are not the same number
Don't carry a PrizePicks number over to a sportsbook. At the same time, the free Bengals vs Falcons game page listed Chase at 73.5 receiving yards at Circa, and our DraftKings card had him at 77.5. Compare your own line on NFL Player Props Today before reading anything into the projection.
How Chase has been used in 2026
Chase has 43 catches for 492 yards and 6 touchdowns on 61 targets in seven games, or 70.3 yards a game. That average is below 76.5, but the game log explains most of the gap.
| Week | Opponent | Targets | Rec | Yards | Snaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | vs TEN | 16 | 11 | 141 | 96% |
| 7 | @ BAL | 7 | 5 | 62 | 87% |
| 5 | @ MIA | 10 | 6 | 77 | 89% |
| 4 | vs JAX | 3 | 3 | 27 | 20% |
| 3 | @ PIT | 12 | 9 | 98 | 100% |
| 2 | @ HOU | 9 | 7 | 75 | 88% |
| 1 | vs TB | 4 | 2 | 12 | 94% |
Week 4 was not a normal game: Chase left early in the second quarter with a concussion after a facemask on a swing pass, per Bengals.com. Without that game, he averages about 77.5 yards in six full games, right on top of this line. He cleared 76.5 in three of those six (98, 77 and 141). The history alone reads close to even; the projection is what separates this card.
The NFL Receiving Lab fills in the usage: a 24.2% target share, 9.0 targets a game, a 10.4-yard average depth of target, a 70% catch rate and a 27% share of red-zone targets over his last ten games. Last week he drew 16 targets against Tennessee, a 34% share. Chase has no game status on the NFL injury report, and his player page has the full log.
The Tee Higgins question
The strongest contrary evidence sits in Chase's own locker room. Tee Higgins is second in the NFL with 726 receiving yards and was the AFC Offensive Player of the Week after a 10-catch, 155-yard game in Week 8, per the Bengals' Week 9 preview. Both have 61 targets, per Sky Sports. Burrow's passer rating throwing to Higgins is 132.3, best in the league, against 113.6 throwing to Chase, per Bengals.com.
Bengals head coach Zac Taylor told Sky Sports on Nov 6: "To have them both on the same team is pretty luxurious for us. And to be able to put them on the same side, different sides, if defenses are gonna single one of them usually there's great opportunities there for those guys behind them."
Chase framed it the same way at his Friday press conference in Madrid, as quoted by Bengals.com: "When one's clicking, the other guy's getting all the attention, and it's one-on one matchups for Tee." The volume can swing between them week to week. A coverage plan that leans toward Chase could push targets to Higgins, the most direct way this card misses.
The Atlanta pass defense
Atlanta has been giving up yards through the air. Blogging Dirty put the Falcons at roughly 271 passing yards allowed per game entering Week 8 and expects A.J. Terrell to draw Chase, with C.J. Henderson on Higgins. That is the writer's expectation, not a confirmed plan. Falcons head coach Kevin Stefanski, quoted in the same piece, said: "Having two wide receiver playmakers like they have, I don't know if anybody in the league has guys like that."
In the Receiving Lab, this season 14 of 23 wide receiver receiving-yard lines against Atlanta finished over their closing number. The Matchup Cheat Sheet ranks Atlanta fifth in pass attempts faced, at 36.1 per game.
The case against: in Week 8, Tampa Bay's listed receivers Chris Godwin Jr., Tez Johnson and Ted Hurst III all finished with zero receiving yards against this defense. Atlanta has also allowed just two touchdown passes over its past three games, per the Bengals' preview.
Game script and Burrow's form
Joe Burrow leads the league in completion rate (73.0%), touchdown passes (20) and passing yards per game (302.1), and threw for 482 yards in the Week 8 overtime win, per Bengals.com. "We still haven't played our best game yet," Chase said Friday.
The market has Cincinnati favored by a median 3.5 points with a 52.5 total across 15 books on NFL Live Odds. Live Trends shows how far that moved: the DraftKings total was first tracked at 48.5 and now sits at 52.5, while the spread came down from Bengals -4.5 to -3.0.
The KarmaEdge AI game model on NFL AI Models (Premium) projects Bengals by 2.0 and a 53.5 total, with AI Scores of 50 and 57. That points to a closer, slightly higher-scoring game than the market expects. A close game tends to keep Cincinnati throwing late, which fits a high-volume projection. That is game-script context, not a measured correlation with Chase's yards. The free Matchup X-Ray shows a 61% no-vig market win chance for Cincinnati; the full simulation is Premium.
What could change before kickoff
- The line. Lines can move before 9:30 AM ET, so recheck the number.
- Coverage. If Terrell travels with Chase and wins early, expect more looks for Higgins and Mike Gesicki, who has a touchdown catch in five straight games.
- Injuries. Atlanta lists Divine Deablo (forearm) and James Pearce Jr. (back) as questionable; Cincinnati ruled out safety Kyle Dugger. The Falcons depth chart shows the secondary.
- Travel. This is Chase's first game overseas. No data here measures a travel effect, so treat it as unknown.
The case for the projection is a full workload, 16 targets last week, a quarterback in top form and a secondary that has allowed yards to receivers. The case against is a teammate who has out-gained him, a season average below the line and a defense that shut down Tampa Bay's receivers a week ago.
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