CFB Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Emory Williams QB

East Carolina vs Memphis · Thu Oct 22 · 7:30 PM ET

169.5 Pass Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 10 11%1/9 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 131.0
Graph avg: 90.1
Graph median: 32.016–341
Over the close: 0%0/1

2026 per game

Pass Yds131.0▲+92.0

Att20.8▲+16.1

Cmp%65.4%▼-3.0

Pass TD1.4▲+1.4

INT0.4▲+0.4

Rush Yds10.8▲+6.1

169.5

2025

77

Sep 06
31

Sep 13
16

Oct 25
32

Nov 15
2026

23

Sep 05
22

Sep 19
341

Sep 26
143

Oct 10
126

Oct 15
?

Oct 22

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 169.5

Home 17% 1/6 · avg 106.7
Away 0% 0/3 · avg 57.0
vs Memphis No games

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 149.5 11% 1/9
O 159.5 11% 1/9
O 169.5 Today 11% 1/9
O 179.5 11% 1/9
O 189.5 11% 1/9

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs Memphis

What Memphis allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 183 defenses.

Pass Yds219.1#93
Yds/Att9.1#30
Cmp%61.2%#125
Pass TD1.2#146
Pass Att24.2#163

QBs vs Memphis · 2026

Each main QB who faced Memphis this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+13.4

Avg diff %+5%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 10	Ryder Burton	131	175.5	-25%
Oct 03	Cole Gonzales	73	182.2	-60%
Sep 12	Maddux Madsen	221	215.0	+3%
Sep 05	Trey Owens	325	217.7	+49%
Aug 29	Jackson Arnold	291	183.3	+59%

Game log · 9 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 169.5	Close
2026-10-15	7	@ UAB	126	Under	196.5
2026-10-10	6	vs Rice	143	Under	—
2026-09-26	4	vs North Carolina Central	341	Over	—
2026-09-19	3	@ Old Dominion	22	Under	—
2026-09-05	1	@ Alabama	23	Under	—
2025-11-15	12	vs NC State	32	Under	—
2025-10-25	9	vs Stanford	16	Under	—
2025-09-13	3	vs South Florida	31	Under	—
2025-09-06	2	vs Bethune-Cookman	77	Under	—

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 169.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: CollegeFootballData box scores. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 16m ago.