NFL Receiving Lab: Target Share, Air Yards & aDOT

Every pass-catcher with a line this week: how they’re being used, how their last 10 games went against the line, and what this week’s defense allows to their position. Matchup Cheat Sheet →

Softest vs TE CIN #1 in rec yds allowed to TEs · 89/g Greg Dulcich · 14.3% target share Biggest role riser Isaiah Likely Target share +19.8 pts (last 4 vs 4 before) now 31.0% Steadiest over Mike Gesicki Over 33.5 in 7 of last 10 Rec Yds Red-zone magnet Isaiah Likely 46% of NYG red-zone targets (6 of 13) 1 end-zone targets this season

Player

Rec Yds line

Season graph

Season hit

Season avg · vs line

Target share

Trend

RZ share

Opp Rec Yds

Research flags

Trey McBrideTE ARI vs DET

80.5DraftKings

25%1/4

60.5-20.0

#277.8

Under in 7 of last 10Soft matchup #2

Last 4 games · receiving yards vs 80.5

95@ LAC35% tgt
41vs SEA38% tgt
75@ SF22% tgt
31@ NYG34% tgt

Target share: 32.5%
Targets / game: 11.5
WOPR: 0.68
aDOT: 5.5
Catch %: 72%
Snap %: 89%
RZ share: 32%
CROE: +2.8

Over 80.5 by window

Last 520%1/5
Last 1030%3/10
Last 1533%5/15
This season25%1/4
vs DET0%0/1

TEs vs DET this season · against their closing line

67% went over (6 of 9)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Tommy Tremble CAR	13.5	12	-11%
10-04	Mitchell Evans CAR	7.5	8	+7%
10-04	Darren Waller CAR	37.5	36	-4%
09-27	Kenyon Sadiq NYJ	31.5	105	+233%
09-27	Jeremy Ruckert NYJ	8.5	39	+359%
09-17	Dawson Knox BUF	12.5	5	-60%
09-17	Dalton Kincaid BUF	50.5	95	+88%
09-13	Noah Fant NO	10.5	33	+214%

Isaiah LikelyTE NYG vs WAS

41.5FanDuel

50%2/4

47.5+6.0

#765.6

Under in 7 of last 10Role ▲ 19.8 pts

Last 4 games · receiving yards vs 41.5

78vs DAL28% tgt
33@ LA31% tgt
13vs TEN24% tgt
66vs ARI41% tgt

Target share: 31.0%
Targets / game: 8.8
WOPR: 0.62
aDOT: 7.0
Catch %: 63%
Snap %: 67%
RZ share: 46%
CROE: -6.6

Over 41.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1030%3/10
Last 1527%4/15
This season50%2/4
vs WAS0%0/1

TEs vs WAS this season · against their closing line

60% went over (3 of 5)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Tyler Warren IND	59.5	41	-31%
09-27	AJ Barner SEA	20.5	69	+237%
09-20	Jake Ferguson DAL	27.5	43	+56%
09-20	Brevyn Spann-Ford DAL	8.5	0	-100%
09-13	Dallas Goedert PHI	38.5	77	+100%

Brock BowersTE LV vs NE

73.5FanDuel

100%2/2

101.0+27.5

#3035.2

Under in 7 of last 10Role ▲ 8.2 ptsTough matchup #30

Last 2 games · receiving yards vs 73.5

116@ NO43% tgt
86vs KC23% tgt

Target share: 30.2%
Targets / game: 9.2
WOPR: 0.61
aDOT: 10.6
Catch %: 67%
Snap %: 87%
RZ share: 44%
CROE: +4.6

Over 73.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1030%3/10
Last 1527%4/15
This season100%2/2
vs NE100%1/1

TEs vs NE this season · against their closing line

50% went over (3 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Dawson Knox BUF	9.5	13	+37%
10-04	Dalton Kincaid BUF	47.5	7	-85%
09-27	Brenton Strange JAX	30.5	32	+5%
09-20	Pat Freiermuth PIT	31.5	32	+2%
09-20	Darnell Washington PIT	14.5	7	-52%
09-09	AJ Barner SEA	25.5	13	-49%

T.J. HockensonTE MIN vs NO

36.5DraftKings

25%1/4

48.8+12.2

#1258.5

Role ▲ 9.8 pts

Last 4 games · receiving yards vs 36.5

36vs GB22% tgt
29@ CHI21% tgt
11@ TB16% tgt
119vs MIA39% tgt

Target share: 24.5%
Targets / game: 6.5
WOPR: 0.53
aDOT: 6.8
Catch %: 85%
Snap %: 76%
RZ share: 46%
CROE: +13.2

Over 36.5 by window

Last 520%1/5
Last 1040%4/10
Last 1540%6/15
This season25%1/4
vs NONo games

TEs vs NO this season · against their closing line

86% went over (6 of 7)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-05	Kyle Pitts ATL	31.5	47	+49%
10-05	Austin Hooper ATL	6.5	9	+38%
09-27	Michael Mayer LV	21.5	32	+49%
09-27	Brock Bowers LV	46.5	116	+149%
09-20	Mark Andrews BAL	45.5	49	+8%
09-20	Durham Smythe BAL	8.5	0	-100%
09-13	Sam LaPorta DET	44.5	48	+8%

Mark AndrewsTE BAL vs ATL

30.5Fanatics

50%2/4

37.2+6.8

#1059.9

Under in 7 of last 10Role ▲ 4.3 pts

Last 4 games · receiving yards vs 30.5

49@ IND25% tgt
49vs NO24% tgt
24@ DAL25% tgt
27vs TEN21% tgt

Target share: 23.7%
Targets / game: 6.0
WOPR: 0.48
aDOT: 7.2
Catch %: 75%
Snap %: 63%
RZ share: 21%
CROE: +5.9

Over 30.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1030%3/10
Last 1533%5/15
This season50%2/4
vs ATLNo games

TEs vs ATL this season · against their closing line

62% went over (5 of 8)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-05	Oscar Delp NO	9.5	0	-100%
10-05	Juwan Johnson NO	46.5	59	+27%
09-24	Tucker Kraft GB	46.5	26	-44%
09-24	Jonnu Smith GB	8.5	16	+88%
09-20	Tommy Tremble CAR	13.5	4	-70%
09-20	Darren Waller CAR	16.5	33	+100%
09-13	Pat Freiermuth PIT	26.5	46	+74%
09-13	Darnell Washington PIT	16.5	18	+9%

Tyler WarrenTE IND vs PIT

46.5DraftKings

25%1/4

32.5-14.0

#1652.8

Under in 9 of last 10

Last 4 games · receiving yards vs 46.5

13vs BAL17% tgt
21@ KC23% tgt
55vs HOU29% tgt
41@ WAS17% tgt

Target share: 21.6%
Targets / game: 6.8
WOPR: 0.38
aDOT: 2.2
Catch %: 85%
Snap %: 90%
RZ share: 21%
CROE: +8.1

Over 46.5 by window

Last 520%1/5
Last 1010%1/10
Last 1527%4/15
This season25%1/4
vs PIT0%0/1

TEs vs PIT this season · against their closing line

43% went over (3 of 7)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-01	Harold Fannin Jr. CLE	40.5	27	-33%
10-01	Blake Whiteheart CLE	0.5	0	-100%
09-27	Mike Gesicki CIN	24.5	37	+51%
09-27	Drew Sample CIN	6.5	0	-100%
09-20	Hunter Henry NE	39.5	40	+1%
09-20	Eli Raridon NE	5.5	30	+445%
09-13	Kyle Pitts ATL	38.5	0	-100%

George KittleTE SF vs SEA

54.5FanDuel

75%3/4

61.0+6.5

#2341.9

Over in 7 of last 10

Last 4 games · receiving yards vs 54.5

12@ LA15% tgt
80vs MIA19% tgt
82vs ARI27% tgt
70vs DEN21% tgt

Target share: 20.3%
Targets / game: 5.5
WOPR: 0.46
aDOT: 8.4
Catch %: 73%
Snap %: 68%
RZ share: 24%
CROE: +5.5

Over 54.5 by window

Last 560%3/5
Last 1070%7/10
Last 1560%9/15
This season75%3/4
vs SEA33%1/3

TEs vs SEA this season · against their closing line

20% went over (1 of 5)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Oronde Gadsden II LAC	27.5	36	+31%
09-27	Ben Sinnott WAS	7.5	0	-100%
09-20	Trey McBride ARI	60.5	41	-32%
09-09	Hunter Henry NE	33.5	26	-22%
09-09	Eli Raridon NE	5.5	2	-64%

Harold FanninTE CLE vs NYJ

35.5DraftKings

50%2/4

38.2+2.8

#665.8

Role ▼ 6.6 pts

Last 4 games · receiving yards vs 35.5

21@ JAX14% tgt
54@ TB20% tgt
51vs CAR30% tgt
27vs PIT15% tgt

Target share: 19.7%
Targets / game: 5.8
WOPR: 0.44
aDOT: 6.1
Catch %: 74%
Snap %: 86%
RZ share: 23%
CROE: +10.0

Over 35.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1060%6/10
Last 1567%10/15
This season50%2/4
vs NYJ100%1/1

TEs vs NYJ this season · against their closing line

50% went over (3 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Colston Loveland CHI	33.5	57	+70%
10-04	Cole Kmet CHI	9.5	13	+37%
09-27	Sam LaPorta DET	46.5	44	-5%
09-20	Tucker Kraft GB	45.5	15	-67%
09-13	Gunnar Helm TEN	20.5	28	+37%
09-13	Daniel Bellinger TEN	7.5	7	-7%

Sam LaPortaTE DET vs ARI

51.5DraftKings

50%2/4

57.0+5.5

#370.8

Soft matchup #3

Last 4 games · receiving yards vs 51.5

48vs NO20% tgt
52@ BUF18% tgt
44vs NYJ13% tgt
84@ CAR26% tgt

Target share: 19.3%
Targets / game: 8.0
WOPR: 0.39
aDOT: 5.9
Catch %: 69%
Snap %: 88%
RZ share: 27%
CROE: +3.2

Over 51.5 by window

Last 560%3/5
Last 1060%6/10
Last 1553%8/15
This season50%2/4
vs ARI0%0/1

TEs vs ARI this season · against their closing line

67% went over (4 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Theo Johnson NYG	8.5	11	+29%
10-04	Isaiah Likely NYG	41.5	66	+59%
09-27	George Kittle SF	47.5	82	+73%
09-20	AJ Barner SEA	22.5	8	-64%
09-13	David Njoku LAC	13.5	58	+330%
09-13	Charlie Kolar LAC	16.5	0	-100%

Brenton StrangeTE JAX vs PHI

34.5ESPN BET

25%1/4

41.8+7.2

#3226.3

Tough matchup #32

Last 4 games · receiving yards vs 34.5

23vs CLE14% tgt
17@ DEN7% tgt
32vs NE18% tgt
95@ CIN35% tgt

Target share: 18.7%
Targets / game: 4.5
WOPR: 0.41
aDOT: 7.8
Catch %: 78%
Snap %: 79%
RZ share: 12%
CROE: +8.1

Over 34.5 by window

Last 520%1/5
Last 1040%4/10
Last 1553%8/15
This season25%1/4
vs PHINo games

TEs vs PHI this season · against their closing line

17% went over (1 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Tyler Higbee LA	32.5	67	+106%
10-04	Davis Allen LA	11.5	0	-100%
09-28	Colston Loveland CHI	33.5	31	-7%
09-28	Cole Kmet CHI	8.5	0	-100%
09-20	Gunnar Helm TEN	22.5	13	-42%
09-20	Daniel Bellinger TEN	4.5	0	-100%

Kenyon SadiqTE NYJ vs CLE

30.5Fanatics

25%1/4

35.8+5.2

#960.1

—

Last 4 games · receiving yards vs 30.5

21@ TEN13% tgt
17vs GB8% tgt
105@ DET22% tgt
0@ CHI27% tgt

Target share: 17.6%
Targets / game: 4.5
WOPR: 0.33
aDOT: 5.4
Catch %: 67%
Snap %: 51%
RZ share: 0%
CROE: -2.5

Over 30.5 by window

Last 525%1/4
Last 1025%1/4
Last 1525%1/4
This season25%1/4
vs CLENo games

TEs vs CLE this season · against their closing line

71% went over (5 of 7)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-01	Pat Freiermuth PIT	27.5	17	-38%
10-01	Darnell Washington PIT	16.5	27	+64%
09-27	Tommy Tremble CAR	10.5	41	+290%
09-27	Mitchell Evans CAR	4.5	36	+700%
09-27	Darren Waller CAR	20.5	51	+149%
09-20	Cade Otton TB	27.5	38	+38%
09-13	Brenton Strange JAX	36.5	23	-37%

Mason TaylorTE NYJ vs CLE

13.5FanDuel

0%0/1

-2.0-15.5

#960.1

Over in 7 of last 10

Last 1 games · receiving yards vs 13.5

-2@ TEN13% tgt

Target share: 17.4%
Targets / game: 5.0
WOPR: 0.32
aDOT: 0.3
Catch %: 67%
Snap %: 76%
RZ share: 0%
CROE: -14.4

Over 13.5 by window

Last 580%4/5
Last 1070%7/10
Last 1571%10/14
This season0%0/1
vs CLE0%0/1

TEs vs CLE this season · against their closing line

71% went over (5 of 7)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-01	Pat Freiermuth PIT	27.5	17	-38%
10-01	Darnell Washington PIT	16.5	27	+64%
09-27	Tommy Tremble CAR	10.5	41	+290%
09-27	Mitchell Evans CAR	4.5	36	+700%
09-27	Darren Waller CAR	20.5	51	+149%
09-20	Cade Otton TB	27.5	38	+38%
09-13	Brenton Strange JAX	36.5	23	-37%

Dalton SchultzTE HOU vs TEN

34.5FanDuel

50%2/4

53.5+19.0

#1455.5

Role ▲ 5.7 pts

Last 4 games · receiving yards vs 34.5

35vs BUF22% tgt
140vs CIN28% tgt
30@ IND12% tgt
9vs DAL8% tgt

Target share: 17.3%
Targets / game: 6.8
WOPR: 0.33
aDOT: 6.0
Catch %: 78%
Snap %: 63%
RZ share: 14%
CROE: +7.2

Over 34.5 by window

Last 560%3/5
Last 1060%6/10
Last 1560%9/15
This season50%2/4
vs TEN25%1/4

TEs vs TEN this season · against their closing line

0% went over (0 of 5)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Mark Andrews BAL	38.5	27	-30%
10-04	Durham Smythe BAL	5.5	0	-100%
09-27	Isaiah Likely NYG	38.5	13	-66%
09-20	Dallas Goedert PHI	39.5	4	-90%
09-13	Mason Taylor NYJ	21.5	-2	-109%

Michael MayerTE LV vs NE

29.5DraftKings

75%3/4

42.2+12.8

#3035.2

Tough matchup #30

Last 4 games · receiving yards vs 29.5

32vs MIA24% tgt
23@ LAC14% tgt
32@ NO10% tgt
82vs KC21% tgt

Target share: 17.2%
Targets / game: 6.0
WOPR: 0.32
aDOT: 4.8
Catch %: 83%
Snap %: 85%
RZ share: 10%
CROE: +7.8

Over 29.5 by window

Last 580%4/5
Last 1050%5/10
Last 1540%6/15
This season75%3/4
vs NE100%1/1

TEs vs NE this season · against their closing line

50% went over (3 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Dawson Knox BUF	9.5	13	+37%
10-04	Dalton Kincaid BUF	47.5	7	-85%
09-27	Brenton Strange JAX	30.5	32	+5%
09-20	Pat Freiermuth PIT	31.5	32	+2%
09-20	Darnell Washington PIT	14.5	7	-52%
09-09	AJ Barner SEA	25.5	13	-49%

Dalton KincaidTE BUF vs LAR

51.5DraftKings

50%2/4

67.5+16.0

#2738.5

Under in 7 of last 10Role ▲ 5.6 pts

Last 4 games · receiving yards vs 51.5

130@ HOU21% tgt
95vs DET29% tgt
38vs LAC12% tgt
7vs NE7% tgt

Target share: 17.1%
Targets / game: 4.8
WOPR: 0.40
aDOT: 12.6
Catch %: 79%
Snap %: 66%
RZ share: 6%
CROE: +13.8

Over 51.5 by window

Last 560%3/5
Last 1030%3/10
Last 1533%5/15
This season50%2/4
vs LARNo games

TEs vs LAR this season · against their closing line

17% went over (1 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Johnny Mundt PHI	8.5	0	-100%
09-27	Nate Adkins DEN	0.5	8	+1500%
09-27	Evan Engram DEN	21.5	0	-100%
09-21	Theo Johnson NYG	9.5	0	-100%
09-21	Isaiah Likely NYG	45.5	33	-27%
09-10	George Kittle SF	33.5	12	-64%

Juwan JohnsonTE NO vs MIN

42.5DraftKings

100%4/4

58.0+15.5

#3130.4

Over in 7 of last 10Tough matchup #31

Last 4 games · receiving yards vs 42.5

54@ DET14% tgt
66@ BAL12% tgt
53vs LV20% tgt
59vs ATL17% tgt

Target share: 15.7%
Targets / game: 6.8
WOPR: 0.30
aDOT: 6.0
Catch %: 78%
Snap %: 69%
RZ share: 27%
CROE: +8.6

Over 42.5 by window

Last 5100%5/5
Last 1070%7/10
Last 1573%11/15
This season100%4/4
vs MINNo games

TEs vs MIN this season · against their closing line

50% went over (2 of 4)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
09-27	Cade Otton TB	27.5	56	+104%
09-20	Colston Loveland CHI	50.5	3	-94%
09-20	Cole Kmet CHI	13.5	0	-100%
09-13	Tucker Kraft GB	43.5	65	+49%

Greg DulcichTE MIA vs CIN

25.5FanDuel

33%1/3

30.0+4.5

#189.1

Soft matchup #1

Last 3 games · receiving yards vs 25.5

18@ LV7% tgt
17@ SF13% tgt
55vs KC20% tgt

Target share: 14.3%
Targets / game: 4.0
WOPR: 0.27
aDOT: 5.7
Catch %: 75%
Snap %: 65%
RZ share: 50%
CROE: +1.6

Over 25.5 by window

Last 560%3/5
Last 1060%6/10
Last 1547%7/15
This season33%1/3
vs CIN100%1/1

TEs vs CIN this season · against their closing line

67% went over (4 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Brenton Strange JAX	36.5	95	+160%
09-27	Pat Freiermuth PIT	36.5	30	-18%
09-27	Darnell Washington PIT	13.5	67	+396%
09-20	Foster Moreau HOU	7.5	34	+353%
09-20	Dalton Schultz HOU	43.5	140	+222%
09-13	Cade Otton TB	31.5	26	-17%

Chig OkonkwoTE WAS vs NYG

26.5PrizePicks

0%0/2

10.5-16.0

#1851.2

Role ▼ 4.4 pts

Last 2 games · receiving yards vs 26.5

16@ PHI10% tgt
5vs IND11% tgt

Target share: 14.2%
Targets / game: 4.8
WOPR: 0.29
aDOT: 8.6
Catch %: 57%
Snap %: 57%
RZ share: 0%
CROE: -9.9

Over 26.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1060%6/10
Last 1560%9/15
This season0%0/2
vs NYGNo games

TEs vs NYG this season · against their closing line

44% went over (4 of 9)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Trey McBride ARI	63.5	31	-51%
10-04	Elijah Higgins ARI	4.5	19	+322%
09-27	Gunnar Helm TEN	21.5	14	-35%
09-27	Daniel Bellinger TEN	4.5	16	+256%
09-21	Terrance Ferguson LA	34.5	54	+57%
09-21	Davis Allen LA	4.5	7	+56%
09-21	Colby Parkinson LA	30.5	15	-51%
09-13	Jake Ferguson DAL	30.5	6	-80%

Hunter HenryTE NE vs LV

38.5DraftKings

50%2/4

33.2-5.2

#2440.5

—

Last 4 games · receiving yards vs 38.5

26@ SEA10% tgt
40vs PIT24% tgt
5@ JAX7% tgt
62@ BUF14% tgt

Target share: 13.5%
Targets / game: 3.8
WOPR: 0.29
aDOT: 7.9
Catch %: 80%
Snap %: 75%
RZ share: 7%
CROE: +11.3

Over 38.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1050%5/10
Last 1553%8/15
This season50%2/4
vs LV100%1/1

TEs vs LV this season · against their closing line

62% went over (5 of 8)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Travis Kelce KC	47.5	15	-68%
10-04	Noah Gray KC	8.5	17	+100%
09-27	Noah Fant NO	11.5	33	+187%
09-27	Juwan Johnson NO	35.5	53	+49%
09-20	Oronde Gadsden II LAC	12.5	18	+44%
09-20	David Njoku LAC	23.5	9	-62%
09-20	Charlie Kolar LAC	7.5	21	+180%
09-13	Greg Dulcich MIA	26.5	18	-32%

Pat FreiermuthTE PIT vs IND

27.5FanDuel

75%3/4

31.2+3.8

#860.1

—

Last 4 games · receiving yards vs 27.5

46vs ATL14% tgt
32@ NE14% tgt
30vs CIN13% tgt
17@ CLE13% tgt

Target share: 13.2%
Targets / game: 4.8
WOPR: 0.28
aDOT: 8.2
Catch %: 74%
Snap %: 68%
RZ share: 19%
CROE: +7.0

Over 27.5 by window

Last 560%3/5
Last 1060%6/10
Last 1547%7/15
This season75%3/4
vs IND50%1/2

TEs vs IND this season · against their closing line

50% went over (3 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Chig Okonkwo WAS	29.5	5	-83%
09-27	Foster Moreau HOU	4.5	7	+56%
09-27	Dalton Schultz HOU	49.5	30	-39%
09-20	Travis Kelce KC	41.5	101	+143%
09-20	Noah Gray KC	11.5	0	-100%
09-13	Mark Andrews BAL	32.5	49	+51%

Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC vs DEN

34.5PrizePicks

25%1/4

21.5-13.0

#1358.3

Under in 8 of last 10

Last 4 games · receiving yards vs 34.5

32vs ARI7% tgt
18vs LV8% tgt
0@ BUF9% tgt
36@ SEA26% tgt

Target share: 12.5%
Targets / game: 3.8
WOPR: 0.25
aDOT: 6.3
Catch %: 60%
Snap %: 44%
RZ share: 23%
CROE: -2.8

Over 34.5 by window

Last 520%1/5
Last 1020%2/10
Last 1533%5/15
This season25%1/4
vs DEN50%1/2

TEs vs DEN this season · against their closing line

38% went over (3 of 8)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	George Kittle SF	64.5	70	+9%
09-27	Tyler Higbee LA	9.5	62	+553%
09-27	Terrance Ferguson LA	50.5	9	-82%
09-27	Davis Allen LA	24.5	19	-22%
09-27	Colby Parkinson LA	16.5	0	-100%
09-20	Brenton Strange JAX	30.5	17	-44%
09-14	Travis Kelce KC	42.5	71	+67%
09-14	Noah Gray KC	9.5	5	-47%

AJ BarnerTE SEA vs SF

22.5DraftKings

25%1/4

25.5+3.0

#2147.5

Role ▲ 3.9 pts

Last 4 games · receiving yards vs 22.5

13vs NE8% tgt
8@ ARI4% tgt
69@ WAS20% tgt
12vs LAC15% tgt

Target share: 11.8%
Targets / game: 3.8
WOPR: 0.21
aDOT: 2.3
Catch %: 60%
Snap %: 87%
RZ share: 24%
CROE: -13.3

Over 22.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1040%4/10
Last 1553%8/15
This season25%1/4
vs SF0%0/5

TEs vs SF this season · against their closing line

14% went over (1 of 7)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Evan Engram DEN	17.5	6	-66%
10-04	Adam Trautman DEN	4.5	0	-100%
09-27	Trey McBride ARI	69.5	75	+8%
09-20	Greg Dulcich MIA	20.5	17	-17%
09-10	Tyler Higbee LA	15.5	12	-23%
09-10	Terrance Ferguson LA	24.5	0	-100%
09-10	Colby Parkinson LA	18.5	6	-68%

Gunnar HelmTE TEN vs HOU

18.5BetMGM

25%1/4

15.0-3.5

#1554.0

—

Last 4 games · receiving yards vs 18.5

28vs NYJ18% tgt
13vs PHI12% tgt
14@ NYG11% tgt
5@ BAL4% tgt

Target share: 11.2%
Targets / game: 3.0
WOPR: 0.20
aDOT: 3.8
Catch %: 75%
Snap %: 79%
RZ share: 23%
CROE: +9.4

Over 18.5 by window

Last 520%1/5
Last 1040%4/10
Last 1547%7/15
This season25%1/4
vs HOU50%1/2

TEs vs HOU this season · against their closing line

50% went over (3 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Jake Ferguson DAL	24.5	11	-55%
10-04	Brevyn Spann-Ford DAL	3.5	0	-100%
09-27	Tyler Warren IND	46.5	55	+18%
09-20	Erick All CIN	2.5	5	+100%
09-13	Dawson Knox BUF	13.5	7	-48%
09-13	Dalton Kincaid BUF	38.5	130	+238%

Mike GesickiTE CIN vs MIA

33.5PrizePicks

100%3/3

51.7+18.2

#470.7

Over in 7 of last 10Soft matchup #4

Last 3 games · receiving yards vs 33.5

78vs TB21% tgt
37@ PIT8% tgt
40vs JAX9% tgt

Target share: 10.8%
Targets / game: 4.2
WOPR: 0.26
aDOT: 10.4
Catch %: 73%
Snap %: 46%
RZ share: 20%
CROE: +15.1

Over 33.5 by window

Last 580%4/5
Last 1070%7/10
Last 1547%7/15
This season100%3/3
vs MIA100%1/1

TEs vs MIA this season · against their closing line

67% went over (4 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	T.J. Hockenson MIN	38.5	119	+209%
09-27	Travis Kelce KC	52.5	59	+12%
09-27	Noah Gray KC	0.5	39	+7700%
09-20	Luke Farrell SF	7.5	0	-100%
09-20	George Kittle SF	39.5	80	+103%
09-13	Michael Mayer LV	39.5	32	-19%

Evan EngramTE DEN vs LAC

17.5DraftKings

25%1/4

16.5-1.0

#2048.7

—

Last 4 games · receiving yards vs 17.5

43@ KC18% tgt
17vs JAX3% tgt
0vs LA6% tgt
6@ SF13% tgt

Target share: 10.4%
Targets / game: 3.2
WOPR: 0.23
aDOT: 4.7
Catch %: 46%
Snap %: 60%
RZ share: 6%
CROE: -20.1

Over 17.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1050%5/10
Last 1547%7/15
This season25%1/4
vs LAC100%1/1

TEs vs LAC this season · against their closing line

14% went over (1 of 7)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Eric Saubert SEA	24.5	0	-100%
10-04	AJ Barner SEA	30.5	12	-61%
09-27	Jackson Hawes BUF	24.5	0	-100%
09-27	Dawson Knox BUF	9.5	5	-47%
09-27	Dalton Kincaid BUF	57.5	38	-34%
09-20	Michael Mayer LV	44.5	23	-48%
09-13	Trey McBride ARI	56.5	95	+68%

Kyle Pitts Sr.TE ATL vs BAL

24.5DraftKings

25%1/4

16.8-7.8

#2638.5

Role ▼ 15.5 pts

Last 4 games · receiving yards vs 24.5

0@ PIT5% tgt
15vs CAR10% tgt
5@ GB9% tgt
47@ NO15% tgt

Target share: 9.7%
Targets / game: 2.2
WOPR: 0.25
aDOT: 7.6
Catch %: 56%
Snap %: 53%
RZ share: 0%
CROE: -15.3

Over 24.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1060%6/10
Last 1567%10/15
This season25%1/4
vs BALNo games

TEs vs BAL this season · against their closing line

14% went over (1 of 7)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Gunnar Helm TEN	19.5	5	-74%
10-04	Daniel Bellinger TEN	6.5	2	-69%
09-27	Luke Schoonmaker DAL	9.5	9	-5%
09-27	Jake Ferguson DAL	28.5	23	-19%
09-20	Noah Fant NO	14.5	0	-100%
09-20	Juwan Johnson NO	38.5	66	+71%
09-13	Tyler Warren IND	47.5	13	-73%

Darnell WashingtonTE PIT vs IND

22.5FanDuel

50%2/4

29.8+7.2

#860.1

—

Last 4 games · receiving yards vs 22.5

18vs ATL5% tgt
7@ NE5% tgt
67vs CIN13% tgt
27@ CLE13% tgt

Target share: 9.1%
Targets / game: 3.2
WOPR: 0.17
aDOT: 5.1
Catch %: 69%
Snap %: 66%
RZ share: 12%
CROE: -0.2

Over 22.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1050%5/10
Last 1553%8/15
This season50%2/4
vs IND100%2/2

TEs vs IND this season · against their closing line

50% went over (3 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Chig Okonkwo WAS	29.5	5	-83%
09-27	Foster Moreau HOU	4.5	7	+56%
09-27	Dalton Schultz HOU	49.5	30	-39%
09-20	Travis Kelce KC	41.5	101	+143%
09-20	Noah Gray KC	11.5	0	-100%
09-13	Mark Andrews BAL	32.5	49	+51%

Theo JohnsonTE NYG vs WAS

2.5PrizePicks

67%2/3

6.7+4.2

#765.6

Over in 8 of last 10Role ▼ 9.5 pts

Last 3 games · receiving yards vs 2.5

9vs DAL3% tgt
0@ LA12% tgt
11vs ARI3% tgt

Target share: 8.7%
Targets / game: 2.0
WOPR: 0.18
aDOT: 11.3
Catch %: 33%
Snap %: 51%
RZ share: 8%
CROE: -21.8

Over 2.5 by window

Last 560%3/5
Last 1080%8/10
Last 1587%13/15
This season67%2/3
vs WAS100%3/3

TEs vs WAS this season · against their closing line

60% went over (3 of 5)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Tyler Warren IND	59.5	41	-31%
09-27	AJ Barner SEA	20.5	69	+237%
09-20	Jake Ferguson DAL	27.5	43	+56%
09-20	Brevyn Spann-Ford DAL	8.5	0	-100%
09-13	Dallas Goedert PHI	38.5	77	+100%

Noah FantTE NO vs MIN

13.5DraftKings

67%2/3

22.0+8.5

#3130.4

Tough matchup #31

Last 3 games · receiving yards vs 13.5

33@ DET15% tgt
0@ BAL0% tgt
33vs LV10% tgt

Target share: 7.0%
Targets / game: 3.2
WOPR: 0.13
aDOT: 5.1
Catch %: 67%
Snap %: 41%
RZ share: 19%
CROE: -5.9

Over 13.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1050%5/10
Last 1567%10/15
This season67%2/3
vs MIN100%2/2

TEs vs MIN this season · against their closing line

50% went over (2 of 4)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
09-27	Cade Otton TB	27.5	56	+104%
09-20	Colston Loveland CHI	50.5	3	-94%
09-20	Cole Kmet CHI	13.5	0	-100%
09-13	Tucker Kraft GB	43.5	65	+49%

Drew SampleTE CIN vs MIA

5.5PrizePicks

50%1/2

9.5+4.0

#470.7

Soft matchup #4

Last 2 games · receiving yards vs 5.5

19vs TB9% tgt
0@ PIT5% tgt

Target share: 6.3%
Targets / game: 2.2
WOPR: 0.09
aDOT: 0.6
Catch %: 80%
Snap %: 64%
RZ share: 11%
CROE: -2.8

Over 5.5 by window

Last 580%4/5
Last 1060%6/10
Last 1560%9/15
This season50%1/2
vs MIA100%1/1

TEs vs MIA this season · against their closing line

67% went over (4 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	T.J. Hockenson MIN	38.5	119	+209%
09-27	Travis Kelce KC	52.5	59	+12%
09-27	Noah Gray KC	0.5	39	+7700%
09-20	Luke Farrell SF	7.5	0	-100%
09-20	George Kittle SF	39.5	80	+103%
09-13	Michael Mayer LV	39.5	32	-19%

Elijah HigginsTE ARI vs DET

19.5Underdog

33%1/3

13.0-6.5

#277.8

Under in 7 of last 10Role ▼ 3.9 ptsSoft matchup #2

Last 3 games · receiving yards vs 19.5

0vs SEA0% tgt
20@ SF6% tgt
19@ NYG6% tgt

Target share: 5.6%
Targets / game: 2.0
WOPR: 0.10
aDOT: 2.0
Catch %: 100%
Snap %: 40%
RZ share: 5%
CROE: +26.1

Over 19.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1030%3/10
Last 1533%5/15
This season33%1/3
vs DET0%0/1

TEs vs DET this season · against their closing line

67% went over (6 of 9)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Tommy Tremble CAR	13.5	12	-11%
10-04	Mitchell Evans CAR	7.5	8	+7%
10-04	Darren Waller CAR	37.5	36	-4%
09-27	Kenyon Sadiq NYJ	31.5	105	+233%
09-27	Jeremy Ruckert NYJ	8.5	39	+359%
09-17	Dawson Knox BUF	12.5	5	-60%
09-17	Dalton Kincaid BUF	50.5	95	+88%
09-13	Noah Fant NO	10.5	33	+214%

Dawson KnoxTE BUF vs LAR

10.5DraftKings

25%1/4

7.5-3.0

#2738.5

Role ▼ 5.6 pts

Last 4 games · receiving yards vs 10.5

7@ HOU4% tgt
5vs DET7% tgt
5vs LAC4% tgt
13vs NE7% tgt

Target share: 5.3%
Targets / game: 1.5
WOPR: 0.09
aDOT: 1.8
Catch %: 100%
Snap %: 68%
RZ share: 12%
CROE: +23.2

Over 10.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1060%6/10
Last 1573%11/15
This season25%1/4
vs LAR0%0/1

TEs vs LAR this season · against their closing line

17% went over (1 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Johnny Mundt PHI	8.5	0	-100%
09-27	Nate Adkins DEN	0.5	8	+1500%
09-27	Evan Engram DEN	21.5	0	-100%
09-21	Theo Johnson NYG	9.5	0	-100%
09-21	Isaiah Likely NYG	45.5	33	-27%
09-10	George Kittle SF	33.5	12	-64%

Ian ThomasTE LV vs NE

24.5BetMGM

50%1/2

21.5-3.0

#3035.2

Under in 8 of last 10Tough matchup #30

Last 2 games · receiving yards vs 24.5

11@ LAC3% tgt
32vs KC4% tgt

Target share: 4.8%
Targets / game: 1.5
WOPR: 0.09
aDOT: 8.7
Catch %: 100%
Snap %: 46%
RZ share: 0%
CROE: +31.7

Over 24.5 by window

Last 540%2/5
Last 1020%2/10
Last 1514%2/14
This season50%1/2
vs NENo games

TEs vs NE this season · against their closing line

50% went over (3 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Dawson Knox BUF	9.5	13	+37%
10-04	Dalton Kincaid BUF	47.5	7	-85%
09-27	Brenton Strange JAX	30.5	32	+5%
09-20	Pat Freiermuth PIT	31.5	32	+2%
09-20	Darnell Washington PIT	14.5	7	-52%
09-09	AJ Barner SEA	25.5	13	-49%

Eli RaridonTE NE vs LV

9.5FanDuel

67%2/3

14.7+5.2

#2440.5

—

Last 3 games · receiving yards vs 9.5

2@ SEA3% tgt
30vs PIT5% tgt
12@ BUF6% tgt

Target share: 4.5%
Targets / game: 1.3
WOPR: 0.11
aDOT: 10.2
Catch %: 75%
Snap %: 44%
RZ share: 25%
CROE: +21.9

Over 9.5 by window

Last 567%2/3
Last 1067%2/3
Last 1567%2/3
This season67%2/3
vs LVNo games

TEs vs LV this season · against their closing line

62% went over (5 of 8)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	Travis Kelce KC	47.5	15	-68%
10-04	Noah Gray KC	8.5	17	+100%
09-27	Noah Fant NO	11.5	33	+187%
09-27	Juwan Johnson NO	35.5	53	+49%
09-20	Oronde Gadsden II LAC	12.5	18	+44%
09-20	David Njoku LAC	23.5	9	-62%
09-20	Charlie Kolar LAC	7.5	21	+180%
09-13	Greg Dulcich MIA	26.5	18	-32%

Tanner HudsonTE CIN vs MIA

1.5PrizePicks

100%3/3

6.3+4.8

#470.7

Over in 10 of last 10Soft matchup #4

Last 3 games · receiving yards vs 1.5

4vs TB3% tgt
13@ PIT5% tgt
2vs JAX2% tgt

Target share: 4.1%
Targets / game: 1.5
WOPR: 0.07
aDOT: 3.8
Catch %: 100%
Snap %: 25%
RZ share: 7%
CROE: +23.0

Over 1.5 by window

Last 5100%5/5
Last 10100%10/10
Last 15100%15/15
This season100%3/3
vs MIA100%1/1

TEs vs MIA this season · against their closing line

67% went over (4 of 6)

Date	Player	Close	Result	Diff
10-04	T.J. Hockenson MIN	38.5	119	+209%
09-27	Travis Kelce KC	52.5	59	+12%
09-27	Noah Gray KC	0.5	39	+7700%
09-20	Luke Farrell SF	7.5	0	-100%
09-20	George Kittle SF	39.5	80	+103%
09-13	Michael Mayer LV	39.5	32	-19%

How to read this

L10 graph / hit: the player’s last 10 games against this week’s line (green over, red under). L10 avg · vs line is their last-10 average and how far it sits from the line.
Target share, air yards share and WOPR (1.5 × target share + 0.7 × air-yards share, nflverse) cover the last 4 games; Role ▲/▼ marks a 3+ point target-share change against the 4 games before. aDOT, Catch %, YAC/rec and RACR (yards per air yard) are this season.
Hit window sets which games the graph, hit rate and average count: last 5, 10 or 15, this season, or only games against this week’s opponent. Research flags always use the last 10.
RZ share, EZ tgts, Deep % and 3rd-down share come from nflverse play-by-play this season: red zone = inside the 20, end zone = thrown at or beyond the goal line, deep = 20+ air yards. CROE is catch rate minus nflverse’s expected catch rate for the same throws (points); YACOE is yards after catch minus nflverse’s expected, per catch.
Opp columns rank what this week’s defense allowed to the position over its last 10 games; #1 allowed the most (green = soft, red = tough). Pos. vs close is how often players at the position went over their consensus closing line against this defense this season (SportsGameOdds).
Research flags describe past games only; they are not a projection or a pick. Click any row for that player’s game-by-game detail and a link to full Prop Research.