Sports betting research glossary

The most favorable fresh line, then price, for one side of a market among eligible sportsbooks. It describes the price, not the chance of winning, and is not a betting recommendation.

Also called Best line, Best available

The win rate a price needs just to break even over time, worked out from its American odds: 52.4% at -110, 60% at -150 and 40% at +150. Matchup X-Ray's Price Lab shows it for every book's price.

Also called Implied probability, Break-even

The difference between the line or price you took and the market's final one before the game started. Take a team at -3 and see it close at -5.5, and you beat the close by 2.5 points. Beating the close never guarantees any single result.

Also called CLV

A sportsbook's built-in margin on a market: how far its two sides' break-even win rates add up to over 100%. At -110 on both sides each side needs 52.4%, together 104.8%, so the hold is 4.8%. The lower the hold, the fairer the price.

Also called Vig, Juice

KarmaEdge AI player-prop research in one card: the projection compared with the current sportsbook, PrizePicks or Underdog line, scored and ranked. One card is free each day when a card passes the eligibility and freshness gates.

Also called KarmaCards

A rank from 0 to 100 of the gap between the KarmaEdge AI projection and the posted line: the gap's percentile, rounded down, among every comparable game or prop on the board. A 90 means the gap is larger than roughly 90% of comparable plays. A projection equal to the line scores 0 (no lean), and in a large group the smallest real gap can round down to 0 too. On game cards, games with the same gap are ordered by the posted price on the model's side, the better price ranking higher. It is a beta research rank, not a win probability, a confidence level or expected profit.

Also called AI Score

How far a line has moved from the open, the bookmaker's verified opening line, or from the first line KarmaEdge stored when the open is not verified ("First tracked"). It describes the number only, not confidence or a better bet.

Also called Movement

The sportsbooks' consensus line for one game: the median spread and the median total across the books on the board, shown as "Median spread" and "Median total" on Matchup X-Ray and as "Median" on the games hubs. With an even number of books it is halfway between the middle two, so it can be a number no single book posts. It is the market's number, not a KarmaEdge projection; the Matchup X-Ray simulation is centered on it.

Also called Median spread, Median total, Consensus line

A market on which team wins the game outright, priced in American odds. A minus price is what you risk to win $100 (at -150, risk $150 to win $100); a plus price is what $100 wins (at +130, $100 wins $130).

Also called Money line

A book's prices with its hold taken out: each side's break-even win rate divided by the two sides' total, so the pair adds up to 100%. At -110 on both sides it is 50% and 50%. Matchup X-Ray's Price Lab shows it as each book's no-vig split: the market's implied chance, not a KarmaEdge projection.

Also called No-vig, Fair price, No-vig split

A market on one player's own stat in one game, such as passing yards, rushing yards, receptions or receiving yards. The sportsbook posts a line and you pick a side: over (the player finishes above the line) or under (below it). PrizePicks and Underdog post their own player lines too.

Also called Prop, Player prop bet

A KarmaEdge AI model's estimate of a number in a game: a team's margin (the projected spread), the combined score (the projected total) or a player's stat, such as receiving yards. It is research, not a guarantee, and it is not a simulation. KarmaEdge shows it next to the current line and withholds it when the data behind it is missing or stale.

Also called AI projection, KarmaEdge AI projection

The projection minus the line. On a player prop or a total, a positive difference means the projection is above the line (toward the over) and a negative one means it is below (toward the under); game cards show the size of the gap in points next to the side the model leans to. A difference is research context, not a probability or a betting recommendation.

Also called Research difference, Projection difference

The Matchup X-Ray simulation's one result: the middle of the 10,000 simulated finals, each team's median score when an NFL or NBA game is played 10,000 times on the books' median spread and total. It is the market's view played out, not a KarmaEdge pick and not the KarmaEdge AI projection. A replay shown beside it is an example game unless it ends on that middle final.

Also called Simulation median, Middle of the finals, Simulated final

A handicap on the final margin. The favorite carries a minus number and must win by more than it (at -3.5, by 4 or more); the underdog carries the same number with a plus and covers by losing by less than it or winning. A final margin exactly on a whole-number spread is a push.

Also called Point spread

The same rank shown as stars: 5 stars for an AI Score of 90 or higher, 4 for 75 to 89 and 3 for 50 to 74. A play earns no stars below 50, none when there is nothing comparable to rank it against, and none when every comparable play is tied: the same non-zero gap and, on game cards, the same price on the model's side (each then scores 50). Where a play earns none, a game card still shows two stars if its score is above 0; a player prop shows none. Stars are not a confidence level or a recommendation.

Also called KarmaEdge stars, Star rating

The number a sportsbook or pick'em platform posts for a market, such as a spread of -3.5, a total of 44.5 or a player's 64.5 receiving yards, usually with a price on each side. Lines move; every line on KarmaEdge shows when it was last updated.

Also called Line, Posted line, Market line

The combined points both teams score in a game, posted as one number. Over means the final combined score is above it; under means below it. KarmaEdge AI game models project the total and show it next to the posted total.

Also called Over/under, Game total