NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

John Bates TE

WAS vs PHI · Sun Nov 1 · 8:20 PM ET

0.5 Rec Yds

Hit rate · All 70%21/30 Odds imply —

Season avg: 6.8
Graph avg: 8.2
Graph median: 7.50–22
Over the close: 33%2/6

2026 per game

Targets1.5▼-0.1

Rec1.2▲+0.1

Rec Yds6.8▼-3.6

Rec TD0.0▼-0.1

Snaps31.0▼-3.6

Snap %46.2%▼-9.6

0.5

2024

0

Sep 08
5

Sep 15
9

Sep 29
0

Oct 13
0

Oct 20
20

Oct 27
0

Nov 10
17

Nov 14
13

Nov 24
6

Dec 15
0

Dec 22
14

Dec 29
0

Jan 05
0

Jan 12
20

Jan 18
11

Jan 26
2025

9

Oct 05
5

Oct 19
22

Oct 27
20

Nov 02
6

Nov 09
9

Nov 30
0

Dec 07
19

Dec 14
0

Dec 20
13

Jan 04
2026

13

Sep 13
9

Sep 27
1

Oct 11
4

Oct 19
?

Nov 02

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 0.5

Home 69% 9/13 · avg 7.5
Away 71% 12/17 · avg 8.7
vs PHI 67% 4/6 · avg 9.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 Today 70% 21/30
O 5.5 57% 17/30
O 10.5 37% 11/30

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs PHI

What PHI allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds36.7#30
Receptions4.2#30
Targets5.8#28
Yds/Target6.3#24
Rec TD0.3#21

TEs vs PHI · 2026

Each main TE who faced PHI this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-5.6

Avg diff %-21%

Beat their average29% (2/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 26	Jake Ferguson	0	19.2	-100%
Oct 18	Darren Waller	0	39.6	-100%
Oct 11	Brenton Strange	68	42.2	+61%
Oct 04	Tyler Higbee	67	38.6	+74%
Sep 28	Colston Loveland	31	35.5	-13%
Sep 20	Gunnar Helm	13	14.2	-8%
Sep 13	Chig Okonkwo	16	44.7	-64%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

WAS offense

WAS offense: Share of WAS pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%11.8 yds	4%16.3 yds	11%5.7 yds
Short	27%6.0 yds	15%6.5 yds	35%5.9 yds

Share of WAS pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

PHI defense

PHI defense: Throws PHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%8.6 yds#22	4%17.6 yds#8	9%13.4 yds#8
Short	32%6.1 yds#10	19%7.1 yds#18	32%5.4 yds#16

Throws PHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	17%2.3 yds	33%5.8 yds	50%5.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of WAS targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Stefon Diggs WR	5	7.6	38	23.4%
2	Terry McLaurin WR	5	5.4	27	18.1%
3	Chig Okonkwo TE	4	5.0	20	16.9%
4	Antonio Williams WR	6	4.3	26	13.8%
5	Treylon Burks WR	5	3.4	17	11.4%
6	Rachaad White RB	5	3.0	15	9.3%
7	Dyami Brown WR	6	2.7	16	8.4%
8	John Bates TE	4	1.5	6	5.2%
9	Austin Ekeler RB	3	1.7	5	5.2%
10	Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB	5	1.4	7	4.2%

Game log · 30 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 0.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-19	6	@ SF	4	Over	0.5	25 (37%)
2026-10-11	5	vs NYG	1	Over	—	28 (45%)
2026-09-27	3	vs SEA	9	Over	—	37 (54%)
2026-09-13	1	@ PHI	13	Over	—	34 (49%)
2026-01-04	18	@ PHI	13	Over	—	41 (59%)
2025-12-20	16	vs PHI	0	Under	0.5	27 (50%)
2025-12-14	15	@ NYG	19	Over	19.5	42 (69%)
2025-12-07	14	@ MIN	0	Under	0.5	32 (62%)
2025-11-30	13	vs DEN	9	Over	7.5	46 (51%)
2025-11-09	10	vs DET	6	Over	—	38 (70%)
2025-11-02	9	vs SEA	20	Over	—	32 (49%)
2025-10-27	8	@ KC	22	Over	—	29 (55%)
2025-10-19	7	@ DAL	5	Over	5.5	29 (43%)
2025-10-05	5	@ LAC	9	Over	—	30 (51%)
2025-01-26	21 (P)	@ PHI	11	Over	—	21 (27%)
2025-01-18	20 (P)	@ DET	20	Over	—	35 (47%)
2025-01-12	19 (P)	@ TB	0	Under	—	38 (52%)
2025-01-05	18	@ DAL	0	Under	—	15 (26%)
2024-12-29	17	vs ATL	14	Over	—	43 (52%)
2024-12-22	16	vs PHI	0	Under	—	24 (35%)
2024-12-15	15	@ NO	6	Over	—	42 (54%)
2024-11-24	12	vs DAL	13	Over	—	29 (41%)
2024-11-14	11	@ PHI	17	Over	—	20 (30%)
2024-11-10	10	vs PIT	0	Under	—	23 (36%)
2024-10-27	8	vs CHI	20	Over	—	25 (34%)
2024-10-20	7	vs CAR	0	Under	—	29 (42%)
2024-10-13	6	@ BAL	0	Under	—	21 (36%)
2024-09-29	4	@ ARI	9	Over	—	40 (56%)
2024-09-15	2	vs NYG	5	Over	—	25 (35%)
2024-09-08	1	@ TB	0	Under	—	28 (47%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 0.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 8m ago.