NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Ladd McConkey WR

LAC vs LAR · Sun Nov 1 · 4:05 PM ET

45.5 Rec Yds O -114U -110

Hit rate · All 56%22/39 Odds imply 50.4% Over

Season avg: 40.0
Graph avg: 60.7
Graph median: 52.00–197
Over the close: 36%8/22

2026 per game

Targets3.6▼-2.9

Rec2.6▼-1.5

Rec Yds40.0▼-8.3

Rec TD0.2▼-0.2

Snaps30.2▼-22.2

Snap %45.8%▼-32.3

45.5

2024

39

Sep 08
26

Sep 15
44

Sep 22
67

Sep 29
43

Oct 13
46

Oct 21
111

Oct 27
64

Nov 03
52

Nov 10
123

Nov 17
83

Nov 25
117

Dec 01
58

Dec 15
87

Dec 19
94

Dec 28
95

Jan 05
197

Jan 11
2025

74

Sep 05
48

Sep 15
41

Sep 21
11

Sep 28
39

Oct 05
100

Oct 12
67

Oct 19
88

Oct 23
56

Nov 02
107

Nov 09
13

Nov 16
39

Nov 30
12

Dec 08
20

Dec 14
43

Dec 21
31

Dec 27
32

Jan 11
2026

82

Sep 13
35

Sep 20
66

Sep 27
0

Oct 04
17

Oct 18
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 45.5

Home 63% 12/19 · avg 65.0
Away 50% 10/20 · avg 56.6
vs LAR No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 35.5 74% 29/39
O 40.5 67% 26/39
O 45.5 Today 56% 22/39
O 50.5 51% 20/39
O 55.5 49% 19/39

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs LAR

What LAR allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds135.1#22
Receptions10.1#26
Targets18.3#18
Yds/Target7.4#22
Rec TD1.3#3

WRs vs LAR · 2026

Each main WR who faced LAR this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-12.7

Avg diff %-18%

Beat their average36% (5/14)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Tre Tucker	103	61.8	+67%
Oct 25	Cody White	4	18.0	-78%
Oct 18	Michael Wilson	32	57.2	-44%
Oct 18	Kendrick Bourne	47	37.4	+26%
Oct 12	Keon Coleman	7	55.2	-87%
Oct 12	Khalil Shakir	80	42.0	+90%
Oct 04	Dontayvion Wicks	18	53.2	-66%
Oct 04	Makai Lemon	27	27.8	-3%
Sep 27	Jaylen Waddle	10	44.3	-77%
Sep 27	Pat Bryant	44	29.7	+48%
Sep 21	Malik Nabers	1	100.7	-99%
Sep 21	Malachi Fields	30	36.3	-17%
Sep 10	Mike Evans	49	74.2	-34%
Sep 10	Deebo Samuel Sr.	48	39.5	+22%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LAC offense

LAC offense: Share of LAC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%14.4 yds	1%14.2 yds	8%7.0 yds
Short	26%5.9 yds	18%6.5 yds	39%4.3 yds

Share of LAC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAR defense

LAR defense: Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%8.4 yds#25	6%13.4 yds#20	8%5.0 yds#31
Short	34%5.7 yds#14	16%5.7 yds#29	33%6.4 yds#5

Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	18%9.9 yds	8%13.7 yds	10%13.5 yds
Short	13%8.2 yds	16%6.7 yds	34%7.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of LAC targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	KeAndre Lambert-Smith WR	1	9.0	9	25.0%
2	Tre Harris WR	5	5.0	25	18.0%
3	David Njoku TE	2	4.0	8	15.0%
4	Quentin Johnston WR	5	4.4	22	14.9%
5	Ladd McConkey WR	5	3.6	18	12.4%
6	Charlie Kolar TE	4	3.2	13	11.8%
7	Brenen Thompson WR	1	3.0	3	11.5%
8	Oronde Gadsden II TE	6	3.5	21	11.4%
9	Keaton Mitchell RB	6	2.5	15	9.0%
10	Kimani Vidal RB	5	2.4	12	7.9%

Game log · 39 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 45.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-18	6	@ KC	17	Under	42.5	8 (12%)
2026-10-04	4	@ SEA	0	Under	47.5	24 (34%)
2026-09-27	3	@ BUF	66	Over	60.5	61 (88%)
2026-09-20	2	vs LV	35	Under	45.5	31 (46%)
2026-09-13	1	vs ARI	82	Over	56.5	27 (49%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ NE	32	Under	30.5	53 (88%)
2025-12-27	17	vs HOU	31	Under	36.5	56 (89%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DAL	43	Under	43.5	48 (75%)
2025-12-14	15	@ KC	20	Under	20.5	49 (74%)
2025-12-08	14	vs PHI	12	Under	15.5	64 (86%)
2025-11-30	13	vs LV	39	Under	30.5	51 (76%)
2025-11-16	11	@ JAX	13	Under	25.5	30 (62%)
2025-11-09	10	vs PIT	107	Over	63.5	52 (71%)
2025-11-02	9	@ TEN	56	Over	56.5	45 (69%)
2025-10-23	8	vs MIN	88	Over	90.5	42 (58%)
2025-10-19	7	vs IND	67	Over	67.5	67 (88%)
2025-10-12	6	@ MIA	100	Over	58.5	44 (69%)
2025-10-05	5	vs WAS	39	Under	39.5	53 (79%)
2025-09-28	4	@ NYG	11	Under	11.5	58 (92%)
2025-09-21	3	vs DEN	41	Under	29.5	80 (93%)
2025-09-15	2	@ LV	48	Over	50.5	43 (74%)
2025-09-05	1	vs KC	74	Over	70.5	55 (85%)
2025-01-11	19 (P)	@ HOU	197	Over	—	50 (89%)
2025-01-05	18	@ LV	95	Over	—	51 (68%)
2024-12-28	17	@ NE	94	Over	—	61 (77%)
2024-12-19	16	vs DEN	87	Over	—	51 (78%)
2024-12-15	15	vs TB	58	Over	—	46 (88%)
2024-12-01	13	@ ATL	117	Over	—	29 (63%)
2024-11-25	12	vs BAL	83	Over	—	59 (86%)
2024-11-17	11	vs CIN	123	Over	—	49 (73%)
2024-11-10	10	vs TEN	52	Over	—	46 (78%)
2024-11-03	9	@ CLE	64	Over	—	48 (84%)
2024-10-27	8	vs NO	111	Over	—	41 (62%)
2024-10-21	7	@ ARI	46	Over	—	57 (86%)
2024-10-13	6	@ DEN	43	Under	—	49 (63%)
2024-09-29	4	vs KC	67	Over	—	43 (77%)
2024-09-22	3	@ PIT	44	Under	—	33 (72%)
2024-09-15	2	@ CAR	26	Under	—	34 (49%)
2024-09-08	1	vs LV	39	Under	—	38 (67%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 43.5Underdog 49.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 6m ago.