NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Lamar Jackson QB

BAL vs BUF · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

237.5 Pass Yds O -112U -112

Hit rate · All 39%14/36 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 241.8
Graph avg: 225.5
Graph median: 220.5101–348
Over the close: 53%9/17

2026 per game

Pass Yds241.8▲+45.7

Att24.0▲+0.8

Cmp%70.8%▲+7.3

Pass TD1.5▼-0.1

INT0.2▼-0.3

Rush Yds36.0▲+9.2

Snaps55.8▲+1.8

Snap %88.0%▼-4.2

237.5

2024

273

Sep 05
247

Sep 15
182

Sep 22
156

Sep 29
348

Oct 06
323

Oct 13
281

Oct 21
289

Oct 27
280

Nov 03
290

Nov 07
207

Nov 17
177

Nov 25
237

Dec 01
290

Dec 15
207

Dec 21
168

Dec 25
217

Jan 04
175

Jan 11
254

Jan 19
2025

209

Sep 07
225

Sep 14
288

Sep 22
147

Sep 28
204

Oct 30
176

Nov 09
193

Nov 16
153

Nov 23
246

Nov 27
219

Dec 07
150

Dec 14
101

Dec 21
238

Jan 04
2026

324

Sep 13
235

Sep 20
186

Sep 27
222

Oct 04
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 237.5

Home 35% 6/17 · avg 224.8
Away 42% 8/19 · avg 226.1
vs BUF 33% 1/3 · avg 206.3

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 217.5 53% 19/36
O 227.5 44% 16/36
O 237.5 Today 39% 14/36
O 247.5 31% 11/36
O 257.5 28% 10/36

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs BUF

What BUF allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds244.8#10
Yds/Att6.7#21
Cmp%61.3%#26
Pass TD2.3#2
Pass Att36.7#4

QBs vs BUF · 2026

Each main QB who faced BUF this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+45.1

Avg diff %+18%

Beat their average100% (6/6)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Kirk Cousins	313	260.7	+20%
Oct 12	Matthew Stafford	383	267.7	+43%
Oct 04	Drake Maye	269	252.5	+7%
Sep 27	Justin Herbert	226	183.0	+23%
Sep 17	Jared Goff	327	292.2	+12%
Sep 13	C.J. Stroud	274	265.5	+3%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BAL offense

BAL offense: Share of BAL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%18.2 yds	5%8.2 yds	5%11.9 yds
Short	25%7.7 yds	23%8.9 yds	34%6.2 yds

Share of BAL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

BUF defense

BUF defense: Throws BUF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%11.3 yds#12	5%12.4 yds#24	9%9.2 yds#24
Short	31%5.4 yds#24	17%6.4 yds#28	32%5.5 yds#15

Throws BUF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	11%19.1 yds	4%11.0 yds	9%11.5 yds
Short	24%7.2 yds	27%10.4 yds	26%5.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of BAL targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Zay Flowers WR	6	8.8	53	31.1%
2	Mark Andrews TE	7	5.3	37	19.4%
3	Ja'Kobi Lane WR	3	4.3	13	14.4%
4	Rashod Bateman WR	7	3.7	26	13.1%
5	Justice Hill RB	7	2.4	17	8.0%
6	Chris Moore WR	3	2.0	6	7.9%
7	Josh Cuevas TE	5	2.2	11	7.3%
8	Elijah Sarratt WR	1	2.0	2	6.9%
9	Devontez Walker WR	5	1.8	9	6.3%
10	Derrick Henry RB	7	1.7	12	6.0%

Game log · 36 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 237.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs TEN	222	Under	213.5	33 (52%)
2026-09-27	3	@ DAL	186	Under	239.5	64 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs NO	235	Under	208.5	58 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	@ IND	324	Over	220.5	68 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	@ PIT	238	Over	170.5	51 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	vs NE	101	Under	216.5	26 (47%)
2025-12-14	15	@ CIN	150	Under	165.5	36 (88%)
2025-12-07	14	vs PIT	219	Under	169.5	80 (100%)
2025-11-27	13	vs CIN	246	Over	276.5	60 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NYJ	153	Under	150.5	63 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	@ CLE	193	Under	215.5	61 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIN	176	Under	185.5	70 (100%)
2025-10-30	9	@ MIA	204	Under	233.5	56 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	@ KC	147	Under	250.5	38 (69%)
2025-09-22	3	vs DET	288	Over	255.5	57 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CLE	225	Under	211.5	53 (95%)
2025-09-07	1	@ BUF	209	Under	206.5	51 (100%)
2025-01-19	20 (P)	@ BUF	254	Over	—	59 (100%)
2025-01-11	19 (P)	vs PIT	175	Under	—	74 (100%)
2025-01-04	18	vs CLE	217	Under	—	67 (96%)
2024-12-25	17	@ HOU	168	Under	—	52 (83%)
2024-12-21	16	vs PIT	207	Under	—	62 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	@ NYG	290	Over	—	49 (83%)
2024-12-01	13	vs PHI	237	Under	—	72 (100%)
2024-11-25	12	@ LAC	177	Under	—	65 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	@ PIT	207	Under	—	61 (100%)
2024-11-07	10	vs CIN	290	Over	—	63 (100%)
2024-11-03	9	vs DEN	280	Over	—	51 (89%)
2024-10-27	8	@ CLE	289	Over	—	68 (100%)
2024-10-21	7	@ TB	281	Over	—	56 (95%)
2024-10-13	6	vs WAS	323	Over	—	68 (100%)
2024-10-06	5	@ CIN	348	Over	—	78 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	vs BUF	156	Under	—	54 (95%)
2024-09-22	3	@ DAL	182	Under	—	63 (100%)
2024-09-15	2	vs LV	247	Over	—	65 (100%)
2024-09-05	1	@ KC	273	Over	—	80 (100%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 224.5PrizePicks 237.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 9m ago.