NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Ryan Flournoy WR

DAL vs ARI · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

35.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 20 40%8/20 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 43.4
Graph avg: 37.9
Graph median: 26.50–115
Over the close: 53%9/17

2026 per game

Targets5.7▲+2.0

Rec3.9▲+1.2

Rec Yds43.4▲+11.8

Rec TD0.1▼-0.1

Snaps50.3▲+18.4

Snap %74.3%▲+26.6

35.5

2025

14

Sep 28
114

Oct 05
30

Oct 12
0

Oct 19
7

Oct 26
12

Nov 03
2

Nov 17
0

Nov 23
34

Nov 27
115

Dec 04
40

Dec 14
18

Dec 21
68

Jan 04
2026

22

Sep 13
23

Sep 20
22

Sep 27
37

Oct 04
90

Oct 08
40

Oct 18
70

Oct 26
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 35.5

Home 18% 3/17 · avg 19.9
Away 43% 6/14 · avg 38.7
vs ARI 0% 0/1 · avg 12.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 25.5 50% 10/20
O 30.5 45% 9/20
O 35.5 Today 40% 8/20
O 40.5 25% 5/20
O 45.5 25% 5/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds138.5#18
Receptions9.9#27
Targets15.9#29
Yds/Target8.7#9
Rec TD1.3#2

WRs vs ARI · 2026

Each main WR who faced ARI this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-5.2

Avg diff %+0%

Beat their average43% (6/14)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Jaylen Waddle	48	38.0	+26%
Oct 25	Courtland Sutton	45	20.5	+120%
Oct 18	Puka Nacua	80	101.2	-21%
Oct 18	Davante Adams	39	88.2	-56%
Oct 11	Amon-Ra St. Brown	69	91.2	-24%
Oct 11	Jameson Williams	47	64.0	-27%
Oct 04	Malik Nabers	112	82.2	+36%
Oct 04	Malachi Fields	52	32.7	+59%
Sep 27	Mike Evans	34	77.2	-56%
Sep 27	Jordan Watkins	60	39.0	+54%
Sep 20	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	155	118.7	+31%
Sep 20	Cooper Kupp	20	29.8	-33%
Sep 13	Tre Harris	20	51.2	-61%
Sep 13	Quentin Johnston	17	37.0	-54%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DAL offense

DAL offense: Share of DAL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.6 yds	4%23.2 yds	6%10.5 yds
Short	32%6.6 yds	14%5.1 yds	36%5.3 yds

Share of DAL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%10.4 yds#17	3%13.8 yds#18	11%11.2 yds#13
Short	30%6.9 yds#3	18%7.8 yds#13	30%6.9 yds#3

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%16.5 yds	6%16.0 yds	6%17.0 yds
Short	41%6.2 yds	15%4.9 yds	30%7.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DAL targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	CeeDee Lamb WR	7	11.6	81	30.8%
2	George Pickens WR	7	8.3	58	22.1%
3	Ryan Flournoy WR	7	5.7	40	15.1%
4	Jake Ferguson TE	7	3.6	25	9.3%
5	Javonte Williams RB	7	3.1	22	8.5%
6	Brevyn Spann-Ford TE	7	1.9	13	4.7%
7	Jonathan Mingo WR	5	1.6	8	4.3%
8	KaVontae Turpin WR	6	1.2	7	3.0%
9	Luke Schoonmaker TE	3	1.0	3	2.7%
10	Tyler Goodson RB	4	1.2	5	2.6%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 35.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-26	7	@ PHI	70	Over	35.5	53 (78%)
2026-10-18	6	@ GB	40	Over	31.5	68 (87%)
2026-10-08	5	vs TB	90	Over	31.5	41 (68%)
2026-10-04	4	@ HOU	37	Over	33.5	58 (74%)
2026-09-27	3	vs BAL	22	Under	29.5	49 (66%)
2026-09-20	2	vs WAS	23	Under	30.5	42 (76%)
2026-09-13	1	@ NYG	22	Under	26.5	41 (71%)
2026-01-04	18	@ NYG	68	Over	26.5	48 (87%)
2025-12-21	16	vs LAC	18	Under	33.5	23 (40%)
2025-12-14	15	vs MIN	40	Over	32.5	45 (64%)
2025-12-04	14	@ DET	115	Over	105.5	53 (65%)
2025-11-27	13	vs KC	34	Under	17.5	27 (38%)
2025-11-23	12	vs PHI	0	Under	10.5	33 (45%)
2025-11-17	11	@ LV	2	Under	10.5	29 (43%)
2025-11-03	9	vs ARI	12	Under	—	45 (67%)
2025-10-26	8	@ DEN	7	Under	—	34 (46%)
2025-10-19	7	vs WAS	0	Under	10.5	19 (28%)
2025-10-12	6	@ CAR	30	Under	30.5	38 (69%)
2025-10-05	5	@ NYJ	114	Over	16.5	34 (57%)
2025-09-28	4	vs GB	14	Under	—	16 (23%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 39.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: FanDuel, updated 10m ago.