NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Emeka Egbuka WR

TB vs ATL · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

49.5 Rec Yds O -112U -112

Hit rate · Last 20 35%7/20 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 40.0
Graph avg: 49.9
Graph median: 40.08–163
Over the close: 40%8/20

2026 per game

Targets8.2▲+0.7

Rec4.7▲+1.0

Rec Yds40.0▼-15.2

Rec TD0.3-0.0

Snaps57.2▲+5.0

Snap %85.8%▲+8.2

49.5

2025

101

Sep 28
163

Oct 05
24

Oct 12
58

Oct 20
35

Oct 26
115

Nov 09
40

Nov 16
32

Nov 23
42

Nov 30
15

Dec 07
64

Dec 11
40

Dec 21
20

Dec 28
8

Jan 03
2026

63

Sep 13
16

Sep 20
62

Sep 27
13

Oct 04
38

Oct 08
48

Oct 18
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 49.5

Home 42% 5/12 · avg 49.4
Away 36% 4/11 · avg 53.2
vs ATL 100% 2/2 · avg 65.5

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 39.5 55% 11/20
O 44.5 40% 8/20
O 49.5 Today 35% 7/20
O 54.5 35% 7/20
O 59.5 30% 6/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs ATL

What ATL allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds152.1#12
Receptions12.4#8
Targets20.1#6
Yds/Target7.6#21
Rec TD0.7#22

WRs vs ATL · 2026

Each main WR who faced ATL this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+4.7

Avg diff %+16%

Beat their average71% (10/14)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Jordan Watkins	56	41.0	+37%
Oct 25	Brandin Cooks	13	6.7	+95%
Oct 18	Luther Burden III	95	66.0	+44%
Oct 18	Rome Odunze	39	57.0	-32%
Oct 11	Zay Flowers	53	111.0	-52%
Oct 11	Rashod Bateman	62	34.0	+82%
Oct 05	Chris Olave	116	86.7	+34%
Oct 05	Devaughn Vele	54	49.0	+10%
Sep 24	Christian Watson	96	83.2	+15%
Sep 24	Matthew Golden	100	73.3	+36%
Sep 20	Tetairoa McMillan	101	82.0	+23%
Sep 20	Jalen Coker	66	65.5	+1%
Sep 13	DK Metcalf	40	55.7	-28%
Sep 13	Roman Wilson	26	40.5	-36%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TB offense

TB offense: Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%9.9 yds	4%13.4 yds	6%8.5 yds
Short	34%5.1 yds	14%7.2 yds	36%5.3 yds

Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ATL defense

ATL defense: Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.6 yds#27	3%19.0 yds#4	8%9.4 yds#22
Short	32%6.4 yds#8	14%6.6 yds#22	33%5.3 yds#19

Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	11%3.0 yds	6%10.0 yds	6%10.8 yds
Short	32%5.4 yds	17%7.4 yds	29%3.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of TB targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Emeka Egbuka WR	6	8.2	49	25.6%
2	Chris Godwin Jr. WR	7	4.9	34	19.9%
3	Cade Otton TE	7	4.3	30	15.3%
4	Ted Hurst III WR	6	3.8	23	12.7%
5	Bucky Irving RB	7	3.3	23	12.4%
6	Tez Johnson WR	7	2.1	15	8.4%
7	Kenny Gainwell RB	7	2.4	17	8.0%
8	Payne Durham TE	2	1.0	2	3.4%
9	Jalen McMillan WR	1	1.0	1	2.9%
10	Kameron Johnson WR	7	0.3	2	1.1%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 49.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-18	6	vs PIT	48	Under	36.5	64 (86%)
2026-10-08	5	@ DAL	38	Under	35.5	64 (89%)
2026-10-04	4	vs GB	13	Under	37.5	59 (94%)
2026-09-27	3	vs MIN	62	Over	49.5	51 (74%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CLE	16	Under	52.5	56 (86%)
2026-09-13	1	@ CIN	63	Over	55.5	49 (86%)
2026-01-03	18	vs CAR	8	Under	12.5	39 (58%)
2025-12-28	17	@ MIA	20	Under	20.5	39 (58%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CAR	40	Under	40.5	36 (56%)
2025-12-11	15	vs ATL	64	Over	55.5	44 (64%)
2025-12-07	14	vs NO	15	Under	55.5	65 (88%)
2025-11-30	13	vs ARI	42	Under	42.5	52 (85%)
2025-11-23	12	@ LA	32	Under	68.5	63 (90%)
2025-11-16	11	@ BUF	40	Under	59.5	66 (94%)
2025-11-09	10	vs NE	115	Over	105.5	61 (88%)
2025-10-26	8	@ NO	35	Under	35.5	51 (88%)
2025-10-20	7	@ DET	58	Over	33.5	52 (75%)
2025-10-12	6	vs SF	24	Under	55.5	28 (53%)
2025-10-05	5	@ SEA	163	Over	61.5	52 (85%)
2025-09-28	4	vs PHI	101	Over	101.5	64 (89%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 49.5Underdog 49.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 9m ago.